NFL Free Pick
The Packers travel to play the Falcons in Week 8. Green Bay’s offense has been coNCerning many people around the league due to its below-average play, yet the Packers have won three of their last Four and are 4-2 on the season. Atlanta’s offense has done the opposite; it has coNCerned many defensive coordinators around the NFL because of its dynamic play. The Falcons are 4-3 after losing back-to-back one-possession Games. Just before the losses they looked like the hottest team in the league. Atlanta is a 3 point favorite, and the over/under is 53.
Aaron Rodgers has been the centerpiece for a lot of the existing coNCern with the Green Bay Packers. He’s on pace for less than 4,000 passing yards this season. Last year he missed the 4,000-yard mark for the first time when playing in all 16 Games. Rodgers did have his first 300-yard passing Game last week in the Packers’ win over the Bears, but it was on 56 pass attempts — his most of the year. Currenly, Rodgers is averaging a paltry 6.31 yards per attempt — by far his lowest mark since he became a starting quarterback.
Rodgers has had the luxury of having Jordy Nelson back at wide receiver, but it hasn’t translated to the field as some would have expected. Nelson is Green Bay’s third-leading receiver in 2016. Randall Cobb has 39 receptions, 388 yards (64.7 YPG) and two touchdowns. Davante Adams has 28 receptions, 350 yards (58.3 YPG) and five touchdowns. Nelson is right behind with 27 receptions, 321 yards (53.5 YPG) and five touchdowns. These definitely aren’t awful numbers. These three, along with Rodgers, just haven’t been as dynamic as many expected.
Eddie LAcy’s injury — and placement on the injured reserve list — has to be extra-coNCerning to Green Bay fans. At least with Rodgers struggling early, they had LAcy to rely on as he was averaging 5.1 yards per carry. No more. More pressure for Rodgers.
Conversely, even in losses, Atlanta’s offense has been dynamic. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are all on pace for personal-best seasons, in one way or another. Tevin Coleman is the team’s second-leading rusher and receiver. They have the ability to make any defense potentially look foolish.
Just as lopsided as this matchup looks on the offensive side, it is flipped on the defensive side of the ball. Green Bay has excelled — ranking 7th — allowing just 314.0 yards per Game. Atlanta ranks 26th, allowing 386.1 yards per Game. The Packers do, however, only rank 15th against the pass, allowing 242.2 yards per Game. This is not good news against the Falcons’ offense.
Our Pick – The Bettorsworld model has the Falcons winning this one by more than the posted line. That’s good enough for us in this one. Falcons -3