By Jason Green
It is pretty simple for the Ravens, as this is, pretty much, a must win Game. If they lose Pittsburgh will win the AFC North and even if Baltimore wins the season finale they will need a lot of help to get a Wild Card. They are the betting favorite and on the road this season they only have 2 wins and that was against the 2-win Jaguars and no-wins Browns. Joe FlACCo only has 5 TD and he has 7 INT on the road. The defense is the strength of Baltimore ranking 7th in the league in opponents’ ppg.
The Steelers are red-hot winners of 5 straight Games and if they can make it 6 in this home Game they will win the division crown. Ben Roethlisberger is having another solid season and Pittsburgh can run the ball, but unlike the last few years their defense has been solid ranking 9th in the league in opponents’ ppg. They look to avenge a 21-14 loss to the Ravens in Baltimore in the middle of the season.
The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Games facing the Steelers.
In their last Game the Ravens beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-26 at home, but did not cover the spread as a 5-point favorite.
The Steelers were on the road in their last Game and beat the Cincinnati Bengals 24-20, but did not cover as a 3-point favorite.
Baltimore had 340 total yards in the win over the Eagles in their last Game where they had balaNCe and ran the ball well, which they have not been able to do this season. Joe FlACCo passed for 206 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and RB TerreNCe West had 77 rushing yards averaging a solid 5.9 yards per carry. The Steelers have to worry about WR Mike Wallace, as the ex Pittsburgh player had 126 receiving yards in the Ravens win over the Steelers earlier this season.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid on the season and overall they rank 14th in the league against the pass and 5th against the run.
The Steelers were solid on both sides of the ball in the win over the Bengals in their last Game with 382 yards and holding CiNCy to 222 yards. Big Ben passed for 286 yards in the Game with 1 TD and no INT and the Steelers had 6 field goals in the Game. Le’Veon Bell rushed for 93 yards in the Game averaging 4 yards per carry. He will be facing a Baltimore run defense that ranks 2nd in the league and their pass D is also solid ranking 10th.
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road Games, 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 Games following a ATS loss, and in their last 6 Games facing teams within their division the posted total has gone Under 5 times.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games overall, 15-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and in their last 8 Games facing a team that has a winning record the posted total has gone Under 6 times.
Bettorsworld Pick – When we run Our model using only the last 7 Games worth of data, Our model says flip a coin. As a result, we’ll take any points available in this one. We see a couple of +6’s on the board as of this writing. Ravens +6