Green Bay Packers
By: Jason Green
Chicago Bears (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-0 SU 0-0 ATS)
In the NBC late Game on Sunday an old NFC North rivalry is renewed when the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. Last season the Bears went 5-11, but they come into this season with high hopes because of two main reasons. One, QB Mitchell Trubisky had a promising rookie season last year and the team won the bidding war trading for star Khalil MACk.
Heee’s baaack! The Packers missed out on the playoffs last season for the first time in several years and the reason was Aaron Rodgers missed much of the season with an injury. Perceived as the best QB in the league he has to be on the field for the Packers to go all the way.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Packers are a 7.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 47.5.
Last season the Bears were 8-7-1 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 4-12 and the Packers were 7-9 ATS and they had an Over/Under record of 11-5.
The Packers are 3-1 ATS in their last Four home Games against the Bears.
Last season Trubisky passed for 2.193 yards with seven TD and seven INT and while he played pretty well he still only led a Chicago offense that ranked 30th in the league. He has a decent, at best, WR corps to work with led by Kendall Wright, who led the team with 614 receiving yards last season. The Bears added two new weapons on the outside in the off-season brining in WR Allen Robinson and TE Trey Burton. Jordan Howard is still the big gun on offense and last season he rushed for 1,122 yards with nine TD.
Chicago ranked a solid 7th in the league last season in pass defense and 11th in run defense and the defense should be much better with MACk (10.5 sacks 61 tackles last season) in the mix. Last season the Bears lost both Games facing the Packers and in the one where they faced Rodgers they GAve up 35 points.
Rodgers is back and healthy and that is not good for the Bears and for the rest of the league. In his only Game against Chicago last season he did only pass for 179 yards, but was 18 for 26 and had Four TD and no INT. Jordy Nelson is gone and Davante Adams is the new #1 WR and in the off-season Green Bay added TE Jimmy Graham. Jamaal Williams will be the primary RB in this Game with Aaron Jones suspended the first two Games and he led the Packers last season with 556 rushing yards. The Packers’ main issue on the defensive side of the ball is their secondary and last season they only ranked 23rd in the league in pass defense.
Key Betting Trends
5-11 ATS in their last 16 road Games
2-9 ATS in their last 11 Games in September
Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 Games
1-4 ATS in their last 5 home Games
8-3 ATS in their last 11 Games in September
Over record of 22-7 in their last 29 Games
Jason’s Pick: While the Bears now have a dominant defensive player in MACk and a solid young QB they still are well behind the Packers. Green Bay has the best QB in the league and they are at home and you add those things up you get the Packers winning and covering the spread.