Bills – Patriots NFL Pick ATS Trends

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NFL Pick

ATS Trend


By: Jason Green 


Buffalo Bills (5-9 SU 5-9 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (9-5 SU 8-6 ATS) 

The Bills are out of the playoff picture, but after two straight losses they got a win in their last Game. Buffalo has the league’s 2nd ranked defense, but they rank 2nd to last in the NFL in overall offense. They faced the Pats earlier this season at home and things did not end well in a 25-6 loss where their offense was thwarted, big time. 

The Patriots are coming off a loss and they have lost two in a row. The last loss was a costly one, as it dropped them behind the Houston Texans for the #2 seed in the AFC so they will not get the bye in the first round of the playoffs if they do not catch Houston. Many teams are jumping off the Pats’ bandwagon saying they are older and Tom Brady does not have it, but we shall see with two Games left in the regular season. 

The Patriots are a big 12.5-point home favorite with a total of 45. 

This season the Bills are 5-9 ATS with an O/U record of 6-8 and the Patriots are 8-6 ATS with an O/U record of 5-9. 

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last Four Games against the Bills. 

In their last Game, the Bills were at home and they beat the Detroit Lions 14-13. The yardage between the teams was almost identical, but they Bills had more rushing yards and there were no turnovers in the Game. 

Josh Allen passed for 204 yards with one TD and no INT and Robert Foster was his main target with 108 receiving yards. Keith Ford led the Bills with 46 rushing yards, but neither he or Marcus Murphy (35 rushing yards) averaged over 3.3 yards per carry. Ford was playing in his first Game of the season as a rookie and fellow rookie Allen has been up and down this season and he had Four picks in his previous two Games before the win over Detroit. 

Allen and company will be facing a Pats’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league against the pass and 17th against the run and in their last Game GAve up 158 rushing yards. 

The Pats were on the road in their last Game losing their 2nd in a row with a 17-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They only had eight fewer overall yards (376-368) and they forced two turnovers and only committed one, but GAve up nearly 160 yards on the ground and only scored three points in the 2nd half. 

Brady passed for 279 yards with a TD and a pick and Julian Edelman led the Pats with 90 receiving yards. Sony Michel had 59 rushing yards averaging a solid 4.5 yards per carry, but only had 13 carries. 

The reason Buffalo has five wins is their defense, as they rank 1st in the league against the pass and 10th against the run. 


Bills ATS Trends

2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games

4-10 ATS in their last 14 Games facing teams from the AFC East

Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games 


Patriots ATS Trends

19-7 ATS in their last 26 Games facing a team with a losing record

36-16 ATS in their last 52 Games

37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 home Games 


Jason’s Pick: Many are counting out the Pats and Brady and they have lost two in a row and in this Game face Buffalo, who has the best pass defense in the NFL. No matter, Brady and the run Game will play well in this Game and like the first matchup with Buffalo they will easily win and cover the spread.