By: Jason Green
Denver Broncos (5-6 SU 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6 SU 5-6 ATS)
The Broncos have won two in a row and both wins were impressive ones beating the L.A. Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers. They may be the best 5-6 team out there, as only one of their losses came facing a team with a losing record. Denver is back in the playoff picture, but need to rely on the Wild Card since they are in the same division as the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs.
Things look worse than bad for the Bengals, who have lost three in a row and five of their last six Games and lost QB Andy Dalton for the season. Jeff Driskel will get the start under center in this Game, but the offense is not the issue for CiNCy their defense is, as they rank dead last in the NFL in overall defense. They have given up at least 34 points in Four of their last five Games.
The Broncos are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 42.5.
This season the Broncos are 5-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-7-1 and the Bengals are 5-6 ATS with an O/U record of 8-3.
These teams met last season in Denver with the Broncos beating the Bengals 20-17.
The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight Games between these teams.
In their last Game, the Broncos were at home and they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-17. Turnovers were the key to the Game, as the Broncos forced Four of them and did not commit any and were outGAined 527 yards to 308 yards.
Case Keenum passed for 197 yards with two TD and no INT in the win over Pittsburgh and Emmanuel Sanders was his top target with 86 receiving yards and a TD. Phillip Lindsay rushed for 110 yards and he has rushed for at least 79 yards in Four of his last five Games. Keenum has not put up huge numbers on the season, but has limited his mistakes as of late and he has not been picked off his last three Games.
While the CiNCy defense has been bad this season at least they are balanced ranking 2nd to last in the league in both pass and run D.
In their last Game, the Bengals were at home and they lost to the Cleveland Browns 35-20. They were outscored 28-7 in the first half and while they had 30 more total yards (372-342) they had two turnovers and did not force any.
When Driskel took over for Dalton in the Cleveland Game he passed for 155 yards with a TD and no INT and also ran for a TD. He is more mobile than Dalton and will look to make plays with his legs to extend plays. Joe Mixon rushed for 89 yards in the Game and look for his to get a heavy workload in this AFC eNCounter.
Denver ranks 24th in the league in both pass and run defense and while they GAve up 452 passing yards in their last Game they did have two INT and they held the Steelers to only 75 rushing yards.
Key ATS Trends
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games
4-11 ATS in their last 15 road Games
3-8 ATS in their last 11 Games facing a team with a losing record
Under record of 3-0-1 in their last 4 Games
1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games
0-4 ATS in their last 4 home Games
Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 home Games
Jason’s Pick: Ok, so CiNCy lost their starting QB for the season, has lost three in a row, and has the league’s worst defense. On top of that they have failed to cover the spread in their last Four home Games. Look for that trend to continue, as the Broncos will stay hot and win and cover moving to .500 on the season.