Browns – Broncos NFL Pick with Analysis and Trends

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Cleveland Browns

vs.

Denver Broncos 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends

12/15/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Cleveland Browns (5-7-1 SU 8-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (6-7 SU 6-6-1 ATS)

The Browns have won three of their last Four Games and with five wins they already have five more wins than all of last season. While they have only beaten one team all season with a winning record Baker Mayfield has been solid as of late and the Browns are playing with confideNCe for a change. Mayfield has tossed a TD pass in 10 straight Games, but Cleveland only has one road win all season and they can double that total with a W in Mile High City this Saturday. 

The Broncos were riding high winning three in a row and their shot at a Wild Card looked solid until their last Game where they lost to a three-win San Francisco 49ers squad where their offense sputtered. Denver needs to win out and get help for any chance at the playoffs, but even at home in this Game they have a tall task facing the Browns, who have nothing to lose. 

This season the Browns are 8-5 ATS with an O/U record of 6-7 and the Broncos are 6-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-9. 

These teams have not met since the 2015 season. 

The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games facing the Browns. 

In their last Game, the Browns were at home and they beat the Carolina Panthers 26-20. They outscored the Panthers 26-20 in the 4th quarter and for the Game they had 45 fewer overall yards (393-348) and more turnovers (2-1), but played well on 3rd down, especially in the 4th quarter. 

Mayfield passed for 238 yards with a TD and no INT and Breshad Perriman led the Browns with 81 receiving yards. Rookie Nick Chubb rushed for 66 yards and a Scoreaveraging 5.1 yards per carry. Mayfield has to avoid the turnover in this Game, as in his last Four Games he has eight TD and no INT in the three Cleveland wins, but only one TD and three INT in the lone loss in that span. 

Mayfield and company will be up against a Denver defense that ranks 26th in the league against the pass and 19th against the run. 

The Broncos’ playoff chances took a big hit in their last Game where they were on the road and lost to the San Francisco 49ers 20-14. While they had more rushing yards in the Game they only had 274 total yards while giving up 389 yards and they were outscored 20-0 in the first half. 

Case Keenum passed for 186 yards with a TD and no picks and while Denver had over 100 rushing yards Royce Freeman led the team with 36 yards with 23 coming on one play and Phillip Lindsay only rushed for 30 yards on 14 carries. Lindsay had rushed for 157 yards in the previous Game and for over 100 yards in two straight Games and look for him to get a heavy workload facing a Cleveland run D that only ranks 28th in the league. 

 

Browns ATS Trends

5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road Games 

4-11 ATS in their last 15 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games after a win 

 

Broncos ATS Trends

6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games 

3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home Games 

Under record of 5-0-1 in their last 6 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Broncos have their playoff lives hanging in the balaNCe, as they need a win in this Game. However, the Browns are playing well as of late and while they only have one win they have nothing to lose already out of the playoff race. Cleveland will have a good Game in this one and while they may not get the W in Denver they will cover the spread in what will be a close Game.