Tampa Bay Bucs
vs.
Baltimore Ravens
NFL Pick
ATS Trends
12/16/2018
By: Jason Green
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-8 SU 5-7-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-6 SU 7-6 ATS)
This Game pits the Buccaneers and their 2nd ranked offense facing off with the Ravens, who have the league’s top-ranked defense. The Bucs had won two in a row before losing their last Game and they best they can do this season is finishing up at .500. They have the best pass attack in the league, but their D has struggled and they got off to a good start in their last Game before falling to the New Orleans Saints 28-14.
The Ravens had won three in a row before a tough OT road loss in their last Game in a wild one against the Kansas City Chiefs. LAmar Jackson led the Ravens to three straight wins, but could not finish the last Game due to an ankle injury. Baltimore may have to rely on the Wild Card to make the playoffs unless the Pittsburgh Steelers struggle down the stretch and they need a home win in this Game facing a Tampa Bay team that is only 1-5 on the road.
The Ravens are an 8-point home favorite with a total of 46.5.
This season the Bucs are 5-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 8-5 and the Ravens are 7-6 ATS with an O/U record of 6-7.
These teams have not met since the 2014 season.
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last Four Games between these teams.
In their last Game, the Bucs lost to the New Orleans Saints 28-14 where they led 14-3 at the half, but were outscored 25-0 in the 2nd half. They only had 19 fewer yards and held the high scoring Saints to 298 yards, but the team fell flat in the 2nd half moving the ball.
Jameis Winston passed for 213 yards with two TD and an INT, but he was only 18/38 and was sacked Four times losing 39 yards. He also led the team in rushing with 47 yards. Mike Evans led the Bucs with 86 receiving yards and Peyton Barber had 42 rushing yards, but only averaged three yards per carry.
Can Winston and company move the ball facing a Baltimore defense that ranks 3rd in the league against the pass and 2nd against the run? In their last Game, the Ravens GAve up 441 total yards.
The Ravens were on the road in their last Game losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 in OT. It looked as if they had the Game in the bag, but could not stop KC from converting two 4th downs on their last drive, which forced the OT. They had 321 yards in the Game with 198 of those yards coming on the ground.
LAmar Jackson passed for 147 yards with two TD and no INT and he also rushed for 71 yards to lead Baltimore. Gus Edwards rushed for 67 yards and he has been running the ball well in the last few Games. One coNCern for the Ravens is that Jackson and Edwards are both nursing ankle injuries, but each should be available in this Game. Baltimore is led by the run Game and they will face a Tampa run D that ranks 20th in the league.
Buccaneers ATS Trends
3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Games
1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Games after a loss
Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games
Ravens ATS Trends
1-5 ATS in their last 6 home Games vs. a team with a losing road record
6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Games after ACCumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous Game
Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 Games facing a team with a losing record
Jason’s Pick: The Bucs got the offense, but the Ravens have the defense and they are at home. Baltimore had a tough loss in their last Game, but back at home their defense will get it done. They will thwart the Tampa offense in this Game and Jackson and company will win the ball well. Add those things up and you get a Ravens win and they will also cover the spread.