By: Jason Green
L.A. Chargers (11-4 SU 8-7 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (6-9 SU 6-8-1 ATS)
The Chargers blew a golden opportunity to take over the #2 seed in the AFC in their last Game losing to the Baltimore Ravens. Now to get that seed they will have to win this Game and have the Kansas City Chiefs to lose at home to the Oakland Raiders. He loss snapped their Four-Game win streak where their offense was solid before only scoring 10 points in the loss to Baltimore, who has the top-ranked defense in the NFL. L.A, is in the playoffs and looks to avenge a home loss to the Broncos earlier this season.
The Broncos have lost three in a row and with their loss to the lowly Oakland Raiders in their last Game head coach VaNCe joseph may be on the hot seat. They have not scored more than 16 points in their last three Games and none of the teams they lost to has a winning record.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chargers are a 6.5–point road favorite with a total of 41.5.
This season the Chargers are 8-7 ATS with an O/U record of 8-7 and the Broncos are 6-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-11-1.
Earlier this season in LA LA LAnd the Broncos beat the Chargers 23-22.
The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six Games between these AFC rivals.
The Chargers were at home in their last Game where their offense sputtered in the 22-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. They only had 198 total yards of offense while giving up 361 yards and they only rushed for 51 yards. On top of that they committed three turnovers while only forcing one.
Phillip Rivers did not have a good Game only passing for 181 yards with no TD and two INT and was sacked Four times. Keenan Allen led the Bolts with 58 receiving yards and Melvin Gordon also did not have the best of Games rushing for 41 yards only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. There is a good chance the solid Chargers’ offense will get back on track facing the Broncos, who only rank 22nd in the league defending the pass and 21st defending the run.
In the earlier season loss to the Chargers the Broncos had 157 fewer yards, but they forced two turnovers and did not commit any.
In their last Game, the Broncos were on the road and lost to the Oakland Raiders 27-14. They were outscored 1`7-0 in the first half and while they had 27 more overall yards (300-273) they had two turnovers while not forcing any.
Case Keenum passed for 202 yards with two TD in the loss to the Raiders, but ACCounted for both of the turnovers with two INT. He has two INT in each of his last two Games and for the Broncos to win this Game he has to avoid the pick. Phillip Lindsay led Denver with 46 rushing yards in the Oakland Game and while averaging a legit 4.6 yards per carry, but the Broncos had to go to the air to attempt a comeback after getting down big early.
The Chargers have a balanced defense that ranks 7th in the league in pass D and 9th in run D.
Chargers ATS Trends
20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road Games
5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games after a loss
Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road Games
Broncos ATS Trends
8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 Games
3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home Games
Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 home Games
Jason’s Pick: The Chargers have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 Games following a double-digit loss at home in their previous Game. That trend will continue in this Game, as Rivers will bouNCe back and the Bolts will avenge their loss at home to the Broncos earlier this season beating them in the finale and covering the spread as well.