Chiefs Broncos Week 4

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Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

Denver Broncos 

Week 4

NFL Pick

10/1/18 

By: Jason Green 

  

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 SU 3-0 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-1 SU 0-2-1 ATS)

 

The Chiefs are off to a blazing 3-0 start where they are the highest s scoring team in the league after three Games. However, their defense ranks 3rd to last in points allowed per Game and they are on the road in Patrick Mohomes first Monday Night start. 

The Browns are coming off their first loss of the season and their defense ranks in the middle of the pack giving up an average of 23.3 ppg. However, you can be sure that Von Miller and the Denver D will be tested in this Game facing a Kansas City team that has lit up the scoreboard in all three of their Games. 

Last season the Chiefs won both of their Games facing the Broncos and they have also covered the spread in their last five Games against them.  

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite with a total sitting at 55.5. 

This season the Chiefs are 3-0 ATS with an O/U record of 3-0 and the Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS with an O/U record of 1-2. 

Last season in the two meetings between these two AFC West rivals the Chiefs won twice. 

The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five Games against the Broncos and they have covered against them in their last Four Games in Denver. 

Mohomes is making a believer out of Chiefs’ fans and in the last Game he threw three TD in the 38-27 win over the San Francisco 49ers. KC outscored San Fran 35-10 in the first half and they had 31 first downs even though they had fewer yards than the 49ers. Mahomes passed for 314 yards with the three scores and he was not picked off and TE Travis Kelce led the teams with 114 receiving yards. 

The Chiefs only rushed for 77 yards in the win over the 49ers and Kareem Hunt only averaged 2.4 yards per carry and only rushed for 44 yards. He won the rushing title last season, but has yet to have a big Game this season. It may be hard to have that outing in this Game since the Denver run D ranks 4th in the league, but they only rank 22nd in pass defense so Miller, who is tied for the NFL lead in sacks, and the pass rush has to get to Mahomes and not let him carve up the KC secondary. 

The Broncos lost their last Game 27-14 to the Baltimore Ravens where they got off to a hot start scoring 14 points in the first quarter, but were shut out the rest of the Game. Case Keenum has been pretty good in his first season in the Mile High City, but only passed for 192 yards with no TD and a pick in the loss to the Ravens and the team rushed for 120 yards. 

Keenum has played well, but he cannot carry the team and needs help. The Broncos cannot get down big and they have to run the ball to move the chains. They Denver offense will be facing a Kansas City defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in run defense, but ranks tied for last in pass defense. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Chiefs

 

7-1 ATS in their last 8 Games

12-4 ATS in their last 16 road Games 

4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games facing a team with a winning home record

Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 road Games 

 

Broncos 

 

7-18-2 in their last 27 Games 

1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home Games

1-8 ATS in their last 9 Games after a loss

Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Broncos will not allow Mahomes and company to light up the scoreboard but they will shut them down either. The 2nd year KC QB will make some mistakes, but also make some big plays. On the other side of the coin Keenum will be steady, but that will not cut it facing the Chiefs. Kansas City will get tested in this division match up, but at the end of the day they will get the win and they will cover as well. 

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