Chiefs – Patriots ATS Winner

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Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

New England Patriots 

Week  6

NFL Pick

10/14/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 SU 5-0 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS)

 

The Chiefs are the lone undefeated AFC team and to show they are the king of the hill, at least for the time being, they need to beat the Patriots in their house like they did last season. Patrick Mahomes has gotten off to a great start, but did throw his first two INT in his last Game. Still, the offense is rolling ranking 2nd in the league in ppg and the defense, which had struggled all season did force five turnovers in their last Game, which was a 30-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

The Patriots have won two in a row where they scored 38 points in each Game. Tom Brady has had issues with the WR positon on the season, but Julian Edelman is back after his suspension and TE Rob Gronkowski leads the team in receiving yards. New England has been balanced ranking tied for 9th in the league in ppg and 9th in points allowed per Game. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total sitting at 40.5. 

This season the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS with an O/U record of 3-2 and the Patriots are 3-2 ATS with an O/U record of 2-3. 

These teams met in the season opener last season in New England and the Chiefs pulled off a shocker in the 42-27 win. 

In beating the Jaguars in their last Game the Chiefs did give up 424 yards and a ton of passing yards, but they played the run well and forced five turnovers. Maholes passed for 313 yards and had not TD and two picks with TE Travis Kelce and the WR duo of Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill combining for 239 receiving yards. Kareem Hunt chimed in for 84 rushing yards and all the weapons for KC will face a New England defense that ranks 14th in the league against the pass and 21st against the run. 

While the Pats only rank 21st in the league against the run they held the Colts to only 84 yards in beating them 38-24 in their last Game. The Colts had one more total yard in the Game, but they also had three turnovers and were outscored 20-3 in the first half. 

In the win over Indy Tom Brady passed for 341 yards with three TD, but he was picked off twice. Four players had at least 50 receiving yards and newcomer Josh Gordon and Edelman combined for 107 receiving yards. If Brady can get in tune with these two guys the Chiefs and the league as a whole may be in trouble. 

Brady got a lot of help in the Colts Game, as Son Michel rushed for 98 yards averaging a legit 5.4 yards per carry. While Brady is THE guy in New England the team ranks higher in the league in rushing yards per Game than passing yards per Game. KC ranks 2nd to last in the league defending the pass and after giving up over 400 passing yards facing Jacksonville’s Blake Borltes last week how will they fare facing the GOAT in New England this Sunday night? 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Chiefs

4-0 ATS in their last 4 road Games 

4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games after a win of more than 14 points

5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games

Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road Games 

 

Patriots 

35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home Games

20-7 ATS in their last 27 Games after an ATS win 

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home Games facing a team with a winning road record 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Chiefs are a good team, but are they are great team? Well, not yet. Brady and company will put them in their place and get some revenge after last season’s home loss. The Patriots will win this Game and cover the spread and show they are still the team to beat in the AFC.