Colts – Jags Free Pick against the Spread

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ATS Trends

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green 


Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8 SU 3-6-2 ATS)

The Colts have won five in a row and they look to keep pace with AFC South leaders Houston, who they face in their last Game. Andrew LUck has been one of the main reasons that Indy is winning and he has already passed for over 3,100 yards on the season. The defense has been pretty good in the win streak, but it is Colt and the offense that is the main reason the team is winning and in the playoff hunt. 

Hard to believe that the 3-8 Jaguars made the AFC title Game last season. This season has been a bust and they have lost seven in a row. Not only that, but the team fired their offensive coordinator after their last loss and starter Blake Bortles is being beNChed and jOurneyman Cody Kessler will get the start under center. The Jags have played Four close Games in a row, but it seems they just keep finding ways of losing. 

The Colts are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 48. 

This season the Colts are 5-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-5 and the Jaguars are 3-6-2 ATS with an O/U record of 5-6. 

A few weeks ago, in Indianapolis the Colts beat the Jaguars 29-26. 

The Jaguars are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Games facing the Colts. 

The Colts won their 5th in a row in their last Game at home beating the Miami Dolphins 27-24. Indy scored 13 points in the 4th quarter, had 131 more total yards (455-314), and got the win even though they committed three turnovers. 

LUck passed for 343 yards with three TD, but was picked off twice. T.Y. Hilton was his main target with 125 receiving yards and Marlon MACk rushed for 85 yards averaging a more than solid 5.7 yards per carry. LUck has passed for at least three TD in eight straight Games and while he only has three picks in his last five Games two came in the win over the Dolphins. 

The Jags still rank a solid 3rd in the league in pass defense while only ranking 16th in run defense. 

The Jags were on the road in their last Game losing to the Buffalo Bills 24-21 where they were outscored 14-0 in the first quarter. Jax had six more overall yards (333-327), but they had two turnovers and did not force any. 

Leonard Fournette rushed for 95 yards in the loss to Buffalo and he has rushed for 956 yards in each of his last two Games. However, he is suspended for this Game because of a fight in the loss to the Bills, but he does plan to appeal. Not good with him likely out with Kessler getting the start. The 3rd year QB out of USC has only played in one Game this season passing for 156 yards with a TD and an INT in a 20-7 loss to the Houston Texans. 

The Colts have had issues defending the pass ranking 20th in the league in that category, but can Kessler and the Jags take advantage of that? The team rushed for 226 yards in the Buffalo Game, but with Fournette likely out they may go to the air more in this Game. 


Key ATS Trends 

Colts ATS Trends

3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games

18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Games facing a team with a losing home record

Under record of 13-6 in their last 19 Games 


Jaguars ATS Trends

0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games

1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games 

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home Games 


Jason’s Pick: The Colts are surging and the Jaguars are reeling and are starting their backup QB with their stop RB likely suspended. Yeah, not a tough call in this one, as Indy will win and cover the spread winning their 6th straight while sending the Jags to their 8th straight loss. 

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