By: Jason Green
Indianapolis Colts (6-6 SU 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (9-3 SU 6-6 ATS)
The Colts had their five-Game win streak snapped in their last Game getting shut out by the Jacksonville Jaguars. They had averaged 34.6 ppg in their five-Game streak before laying a big goose egg in the loss to the Jags. The loss dropped Indy to .500 for the season and they are now three-Games back of the Texans in the AFC South. If they lose this Game Houston will win the division and the Colts will have a major uphill battle to make the playoffs.
The red-hot Houston Texans have won nine Games in a row after losing their first three Games of the season. They have played well on both sides of the ball in their streak, especially on defense where they have not allowed more than 17 points in three of their last Four Games iNCluding their last two. Houston’s win streak beGAn with a won over the Colts on the road in Week 4.
The Texans are a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 48.5.
This season the Colts are 5-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-6 and the Texans are 6-6 ATS with an O/U record of 5-7.
These teams met in Week 4 in Indy where the Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in OT.
The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Games facing the Texans in the Lone Star State.
In their last Game, the Colts were on the road and lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 6-0 in a barnburner. They had more yards in the Game (265-211)., but had two turnovers and only forced one and only rushed for 41 yards.
Andrew LUck put his name in the MVP race with his play in the Colts’ five-Game win streak, but in the loss to Jax he was 33/52 for 248 yards with no TD and one INT. Erc Ebron and T.Y. Hilton combined for 156 receiving yards and Marlon MACk led Indy in rushing with only 27 yards on eight carries. Before the loss to the Jags LUck had at least three TD in eight straight Games.
Houston ranks 5th in the league in run defense, but only 18th in pass defense and the Colts to win LUck has to rebound and have a big Game.
Houston was at home in their last Game beating the Cleveland Browns 29-13. They jumped out to a 23-0 halftime lead and while they had fewer yards (428-384) they stuffed the run and forced Four turnovers while not committing any.
Deshaun Watson passed for 224 yards with a TD and no picks and DeAndre Hopkins was his main target with 91 receiving yards. The Texans rushed for 187 yards with LAmar Miller rushing for 103 yards and Alfred Blue rushing for 54 yards. Miller has rushed for over 100 yards in his last two Games and in Four of his last six Games.
Indy played solid D in their loss to the Jaguars and overall on the season they rank 15th in the league in pass defense and 12th in run defense. In the Week 4 Game between these teams the Colts had more yards (478-466), but had two turnovers and they only rushed for 41 yards.
Key ATS Trends
7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous Game
2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games in December
Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 road Games
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games
13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 Games following a straight up win of more than 14 points
Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 Games after a win
Jason’s Pick: This Game will be much like the earlier matchup between these two teams. LUck will have a big Game, but the run Game will struggle and the Texans will have a big offensive contest. Houston will win and cover and capture the AFC South title in the process.