By: Jason Green
Indianapolis Colts (9-6 SU 7-7-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (9-6 SU 8-7 ATS)
Well, it is pretty easy for both of these teams, as the winner will make the playoffs while the loser is out. The Colts have won three in a row and only have one loss in their last nine Games. They had a big-time comeback win in their last Game and two of their last three wins have come against teams that are in the playoffs. Andrew LUck is playing well and he has a lot of pressure on him to have a solid Game in this finale on the road.
The Titans have won Four in a row and while their last Game was not pretty they got it done with a W beating the Redskins getting a key late interception. They won that Game with backup QB Blaine GAbbert, who played well, playing most of the Game and starter Marcus Mariota is a question mark with an elbow injury. The Tennessee defense has been one of the main reasons for the win streak only giving up an average of 11.8 ppg in their last Four Games.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Colts are a 1.5-point road favorite with a total that has not been posted at time of writing.
This season the Colts are 7-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 7-8 and the Titans are 8-7 ATS with an O/U record of 7-8.
Earlier this season in Indianapolis the Colts laid a 38-10 beat down on the Titans.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last Four Games between these teams.
In their last Game, the Colts were at home and beat the New York Giants 28-27. They outscored the Giants 21-10 in the 2nd half and won the Game with LUck passing for a TD with only 55 seconds left. The Game was not only even with the score, but each team had almost the same number of overall yards, each team had a turnover, and each struggled to run the ball.
LUck passed for 357 yards with two TD and one INT and T.Y. Hilton showed why he is THE guy in Indy with 138 receiving yards. Marlon MACk only rushed for 34 yards averaging a weak 2.8 yards per carry and in the previous Game he rushed for 139 yards. Obviously, containing LUck is key for the Titans and in the earlier loss the Colts he passed for 297 yards with three TD and no INT
Tennessee ranks a solid 6th in the league in pass defense and their run D ranks 14th, but GAve up 161 rushing yards in their last Game.
The Titans were at home in their last Game beating the Washington Redskins 25-16. They outscored the Skins 16-3 in the 4th quarter and got a late pick and then another., which they returned for a TD as time expired. Tennessee was outGAined by one yards (292-291) and only rushed for 99 yards, but they forced two turnovers and did not commit any.
Mariota passed for 110 yards before exiting with an injury and GAbbert came in and passed for 101 yards with a TD and no INT. Derrick Henry rushed for “only” 84 yards after rushing for 170 yards and 238 yards, respectively, in his previous two Games. The Titans have to feed him the ball early and not get down big like they did in the loss to the Colts earlier this season where Henry only rushed for 41 yards and only carried the ball nine times.
Indy ranks 17th in the league in pass defense and 8th in run defense.
Colts ATS Trends
5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record
6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 Games after a win
Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games
Titans ATS Trends
11-4 ATS in their last 15 Games with a winning record
13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home Games
Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games
Jason’s Pick: The Titans did not play great pass defense last week against the Redskins allowing their 4th QB of the season to nearly win the Game. They will not fare any better in this Game facing LUck, as he will guide the Colts to a win and a playoff berth and on top of that they will cover.