Cowboys – Falcons NFL Pick against the Spread

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Dallas Cowboys

vs.

Atlanta Falcons 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends

11/18/2018  

 

By: Jason Green 

  

Dallas Cowboys (4-5 SU 4-5 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-5 SU 3-6 ATS)

 

Both the Cowboys and Falcons are 4-5 and while a lot of football is left this may be a must win Game for both teams. Dallas is coming off a win over the Eagles in Philadelphia that may have saved their season. They rank the ball well and they trail the 6-3 Washington Redskins in the NFC East. The Cowboys had lost two in a row before their win over the Eagles and they are led by a ground Game and defense that both rank in the top five in the league. 

Which Falcons team will show up in this Game? The one that throttled the Washington Redskins in the Nation’s Capital a couple of weeks back or the one that lost to the Cleveland Browns in their last Game. They had totaled 61 points in winning two straight before only putting up 16 in the loss to the Browns. Matt Ryan has played pretty well and while Atlanta ranks 8th in the league in ppg they rank 2nd to last in points allowed. 

At YOUWAGER Sportsbook the Falcons are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 47.5. 

This season the Cowboys are 4-5 ATS with an O/U record of 4-5 and the Falcons are 3-6 ATS with an O/U record of 6-3. 

These teams met last season in Atlanta where the Falcons beat the Cowboys 27-7. 

The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games facing the Cowboys. 

In their last Game, the Cowboys were in the City of Brotherly Love and they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20. They had 11 fewer yards in the Game (421-410), but they forced the Game’s only turnover, held Philly to 4/10 on 3rd down, and they rushed for 171 yards while only giving up 71 rushing yards. 

Dak Prescott played well passing for 270 yards with a TD and no INT and new addition Amari Cooper led the team with 75 receiving yards. Ezekiel Elliot was the big gun for America’s Team rushing for 151 yards with a TD and he had only totaled 94 rushing yards in his previous two Games. 

The big matchup in this Game may be Elliot going up against a Falcons’ run defense that that does not rank in the top 20 in the league and GAve up 211 rushing yards in their last Game. 

The Falcons were on the road in their last Game where they lost to the Cleveland Browns where they GAve up a ton of rushing yards, they failed to run the ball well, and they had two turnovers. 

Ryan had another legit box Scorepassing for 330 yards with two TD and no INT and star WR Julio Jones went for over 100 receiving yards. However, the Falcons only rushed for 71 yards with Tevin Coleman leading the way with only 44 yards on the ground. Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards and Matt Ryan ranks 3rd in passing yards, but with no run Game and a bad defense it is no surprise Atlanta is under .500. 

Dallas does rank in the top 10 in the league in pass defense and their pass D and pass rush will be key in this Game, as the Falcons are, pretty much, one-dimensional on offense since they have not been able to run the ball this season. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Cowboys

1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after a win 

1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous Game

Under record of 20-6 in their last 26 road Games 

Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road Games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Cowboys are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 Games on grass.

 

 

Falcons

2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games 

0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home Games 

Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games as a favorite  

Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games in November 

Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games overall  

Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games on grass 

Jason’s Pick: The Cowboys had lost their first Four road Games of the season before their win over the Eagles. Still, this Game is a tough call. The Cowboys are on the road, but they ran the ball well in their last Game and face a Falcons’ run D that was lit up in their last Game. The Falcons are 3-2 at home and Ryan and Jones will have big Games and in a high scoring affair Atlanta will get to .500 with a win and they will also cover the 3-point spread.