Miami Dolphins
vs
Indianapolis Colts
ATS Trends
NFL Pick
11/25/2018
By: Jason Green
Miami Dolphins (5-5 SU 5-5 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-5 SU 5-4-1 ATS)
Well, we know one thing for sure is that after this Game one team will be above .500 and one team will be below .500. The Dolphins have lost three of their last Four Games and are coming off a bye and they are hoping they can get QB Ryan Tannehill back, as he has missed the last several Games. In the three losses in their last Four Games Miami GAve up an average of 34.7 ppg.
The Colts have gotten back in the playoff picture by winning Four in a row and their offense has blown up in that span. Andrew LUck has been great in the streak as well, as he is all the way back from the shoulder injury that cost him all of last season. LUck leads an Indy offense that ranks 9th in the league and the defense only ranks 20th.
The Colts are a 10-point home favorite with a total of 50.5.
This season the Dolphins are 5-5 ATS with an O/U record of 5-5 and the Colts are 5-4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-4.
These teams last met in the 2015 season.
The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road Games against the Colts.
The Dolphins are coming off a bye week and in their last Game they lost to the Green Bay Packers 31-12. They were outGAined 377 yards to 294 yards and had two turnovers while forcing one.
Brock Osweiler passed for 213 yards with no TD and one INT in the loss to the Packers and while Tannehill may be coming back he had three INT and one TD in his last two starts before his shoulder injury. Frank Gore was solid against Green Bay with 90 rushing yards and the ageless RB has been up and down on the season.
Indianapolis’ defense is not great, but has played much better than last season. Still, they only rank 23rd in the league defending the pass and 14th defending the run.
The Colts were at home in their last Game and they were impressive on both sides of the ball in their 38-10 win over the Tennessee Titans. They outscored the Titans 27-3 in the first half, outGAined them 397 yards to 263 yards, and they forced the Game’s only two turnovers.
LUck was legit in the Titans win passing for 297 yards with three TD and no INT and T.Y. Hilton also had a big Game with 155 receiving yards and two TD. Marlon MACk led the team with 61 rushing yards, but only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. In Indy’s Four-Game win streak LUck has 13 TD and only one INT and he has three TD passes in each of his last three Games.
The pass Game is the strength of the Colts and while Miami only ranks 19th in the league defending the pass they only rank 30th defending the run.
ATS Trends
Dolphins
0-4 ATS in their last 4 road Games
2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games
Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 road Games
Colts
3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Games
16-7 ATS in their last 23 Games after a straight up win of more than 14 points
Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games
Jason’s Pick: The Colts have won Four in a row and the Dolphins are 1-4 on the road this season and have failed to cover in their last Four road Games. It does not matter who is under center for Miami, as LUck and the Colts will stay hot and win and cover at home even giving 10 points.