Dolphins – Vikings Free Pick against the Spread

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Miami Dolphins


Minnesota Vikings 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends


By: Jason Green 


Miami Dolphins (7-6 SU 8-5 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1 SU 6-6-1 ATS) 

Well, the Dolphins may have saved their season in their last Game scoring a Game-winning TD with 16 seconds left on a 69-yard pass play with two laterals. The shocking 34-33 win over the New England Patriots kept Miami’s Wild Card hopes alive. They have won two in a row after losing two straight. The Dolphins racked up 412 yards in the win over the Pats iNCluding rushing for 189 yards. In their last three Games Miami does not face a team with a winning record.

The Vikings are coming off a costly Monday night loss to the Seattle Seahawks and they are in the Wild Card mix, but have to finish the season well. They have lost two in a row and three of their last Four Games and they have only totaled 17 points in their last two Games. 

The Vikings are an 8-point home favorite with a total of 44.  

This season the Dolphins are 8-5 ATS with an O/U record of 6-7 and the Vikings are 6-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 5-8. 

These teams have not met since the 2014 season. 

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five Games between these teams. 

In their 34-33 win over the New England Patriots the Dolphins had a balanced Game and got the win despite giving up 421 total yards. However, they only GAve up 77 rushing yards and outscored New England 13-6 in the 2nd half. 

Ryan Tannehill passed for 265 yards with three TD and no INT and Kenny Stills was his main target with 135 receiving yards. Frank Gore rushed for 92 yards and Brandon Bolden only carried the ball twice, but scored two TD iNCluding a 54-yard scamper for a score. Tannehill has six TD and only one pick in his last two Games. 

The Vikings have a solid defense that ranks 5th in the league in pass defense and 13th in run defense. Their run D struggled in their last Game giving up 214 rushing yards. 

Minnesota was on the road in their last Game in a 21-7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks where they had two more overall yards (276-274), but were torched on the ground while they only had 77 rushing yards. The Game was a close one until the 4th quarter when the Seahawks outscored the Vikings 18-7. 

Kirk Cousins was 20/33 for 208 yards with one TD and no picks in the loss to Seattle and Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen combined for 146 receiving yards. Dalvin Cook rushed for 55 yards and he has played well in the last two Games and the Vikes have to feed him the rock and not get down early and rely on the pass. In Cousins’ last two Games he has not passed for over 208 yards and he has two TD and two INT. 

Miami’s defense has been an issue all season and they only rank 25th against the pass and 29th against the run.  


Dolphins ATS Trends

4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games 

2-9 ATS in their last 11 road Games

Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 road Games 


Vikings ATS Trends

35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 home Games 

0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games facing a team with a winning record 

Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games 


Jason’s Pick: While the Vikings have failed to cover in their last Four Games facing a team with a winning record the Dolphins have only covered in two of their last 11 road Games. The Fish are riding high after their crazy last win and they will continue to play well even in the LAnd of 10,000 LAkes. While Miami may not get the win they will cover the spread in this non-Conference affair.