Falcons – Saints NFL Pick ATS Trends

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Atlanta Falcons

vs.

New Orleans Saints  

NFL Pick

ATS Trends

11/22/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Atlanta Falcons (4-6 SU 3-7 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (9-1 SU 8-2 ATS)

The Falcons made the Super Bowl two seasons ago and the playoffs last season, but the post-season looks like a long shot this season being two Games under .500. trailing the 9-1 Saints in the NFC South the Wild Card is the only way the team can make the playoffs, but they need to catch fire. Atlanta has lost two in a row and neither of those losses came against teams that are over .500. 

How can the Saints not be the Super Bowl favorite? They have won nine Games in a row, Drew Brees has been a MVP candidate under center, and they crushed the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles in their last Game. New Orleans has reeled off nine straight wins and they are the highest scoring team in the league. 

At YOUWAGER sportsbook the Saints are a 13-point road favorite with a total of 59.  

This season the Falcons are 3-7 ATS with an O/U record of 6-4 and the Saints are 8-2 ATS with an O/U record of 5-5. 

These teams met earlier this season in Atlanta where the Saints beat the Falcons 43-37. 

The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games facing the Falcons and they are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven home Games against them. 

In their last Game, the Falcons were at home and they lost to the Dallas Cowboys 22-19 giving up a Game-winning field goal as time expired. They had more yards than the Cowboys, but they had the Game’s only turnover and they GAve up 132 rushing yards. 

Matt Ryan is doing his part leading the league in passing yards and in the Dallas Game he had one TD and one IMNT passing for 292 yards. Julio Jones had 118 receiving yards and he leads the NFL in receiving yards, but a run Game would help. They only rushed for 80 yards in the loss to the Cowboys and Tevin Coleman (500 yards 2 TD) has to get more touches and not have Ryan carry the load on offense. 

The Falcons will be facing a Saints defense that is great against the run, but bad against the pass, but only GAve up 196 total yards in their last Game. 

The Saints are coming off a 48-7 beat-down on the Eagles where they outGAined Philly 546 yards to 196 yards. They forced three turnovers in the Game, rushed for 173 yards and only GAve up 58 yards on the ground. 

Brees passed for 363 yards with Four TD and no INT and Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas combined for 252 receiving yards. Mark Ingram rushed for 103 yards and Alvin Kamara rushed for 71 yards and also had 37 receiving yards. 

Obviously, the Falcons have their work cut out for them on defense where they do not rank in the top 20 In the league against the pass or the run. 

 

Key ATS Trends 

Falcons

7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday Games

2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games

Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road Games 

 

Saints

8-0 ATS in their last eight Games

11-5 ATS in their last 16 Games facing a team with a winning record

Over record of 19-8-1 in their last 28 home Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Falcons have been a major disappointment on the season and they will not fare well in the Big easy this Thursday night. Brees and company will light up the scoreboard yet again and even though they are giving double-digitds they will win and cover at home.