Jags – Bills NFL Pick against the Spread

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Jacksonville Jaguars


Buffalo Bills 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends



By: Jason Green 


Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7 SU 3-5-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-7 SU 4-6 ATS)


The Jaguars have played three close Games in a row, but close does not count in the NFL and they have lost six in a row. In their last Game, they were at home and lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers being outscored 14-0 in the 4th quarter. Jax is Four Games under .500 and unless they run the table they will watching the playoffs from home. The defense for the Jags has been pretty good on the season, overall, but they are giving up big plays at the wrong time and are finding new ways to lose. 

The Bills rank dead last in the league in ppg, but they blew up in their last Game scoring 41 points in a win that snapped their Four-Game losing streak. In the streak they only scored a total of 33 points and had not scored over nine points in three straight before their offense got it done in their last Game. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Jaguars are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 37.5.  

This season the Jaguars are 3-5-2 ATS with an O/U record of 4-6 and the Bills are 4-6 ATS with an O/U record of 4-6. 

These teams met last season in the AFC Wild Card Game where the Jaguars beat the Bills 10-3.  

The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight Games between these teams. 

The Jaguars were at home in their last Game losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-16 where they fell apart late. They were outGAined by 80 yards (323 yards to 243 yards) and they took the loss even though they only allowed 26 rushing yards and they forced three turnovers while only committing one. 

Blake Bortles only passed for 104 yards going 10/18 and their big gun on offense was RB Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 95 yards and a TD and also led the Jags with 46 receiving yards on only two catches. He only averaged 3.4 yards per carry, but look for Jax to lean heavy on him in this Game facing a Buffalo run defense that ranks 10th in the league. 

The Bills were on the road in their last Game and looked nothing like the team we have seen this season in a 41-10 blowout win over the New York Jets. They outscored the Jets 31-3 in the first half and ranked up 451 yards while holding New York to 199 yards. 

Matt Barkley, who was signed on October 31st, got his first start for the Bills in the Game against the Jets and passed for 232 yards with two TD and he was not picked off. Robert Foster and Zay Jones combined for 198 receiving yards and LeSean McCoy and Marcus Murphy combined for 182 rushing yards. 

Like the Jags look for the Bills to lean on the run in this Game facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks 15th in the league against the run and 4th against the pass. However, in the loss to the Steelers the Jags stuffed the run, but GAve up 297 passing yards. 


ATS Trends 


0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 Games

1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games facing a team with a losing record 



3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games after an ATS win 

0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games after a straight up win of more than 14 points

Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 Games  


Jason’s Pick: The Bills are the home underdog in this Game, but they picked up some confideNCe after their last Game. Barkley and McCoy will have solid Games and while Buffalo may not win they will, at least, cover the spread in what will be a close Game. 

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