Jags – Cowboys Free NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars

vs.

Dallas Cowboys 

Week 6

NFL Pick

10/14/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-3 SU 2-3 ATS)

The Jaguars are coming off a bad loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and they have lost two of their last three Games. Which Jags’ team will show up in this Game the one that only scored 20 points in losing two of their last three Games or the one that put up 31 points in the one win in that span? Jax has a balanced offense on the season and are led by a defense that ranks 3rd in the league in points allowed per Game.

To say things are not good in the Big D is an understatement with the 2-3 Cowboys being a big disappointment. They are coming off a loss to in-state rival Houston and their only wins of the season have come against the New York Giants and Detroit Lions, who have a combined three wins. Dak Prescott has not developed as a QB and it is not all his fault with a less than stellar WR corps. 

America’s team ranks 5th in both rushing yards per Game and points allowed per Game, but 30th in passing yards per Game and ppg. Hard to believe the Jags are the road favorite in this non-Conference Game, but not surprising with how Dallas has played this season. 

At YOUWAGER sportsbook the Jaguars are a 3-point road favorite with a total sitting at 40.5. 

This season the Jaguars are 3-2 ATS with an O/U record of 2-3 and the Cowboys are 2-3 ATS with an O/U record of 1-4. 

These teams have not met since the 2014 season. 

The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five Games between these teams. 

The Jaguars are coming off a 30-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs where they were outscored 20-0 in the first half, GAve up 424 total yards of offense, and committed five turnovers. Blake Bortles looked to carry the offense having to come back from a big deficit and while passing for 430 yards he had 61 attempts and was picked off Four times and only had one TD. Overall, the Jags had over 500 yards of offense, but the turnovers killed them. 

The Jags have to run the ball, as if Borltes has to carry the load the team is in trouble. Leonard Fournette will miss yet another Game with a hamstring injury and T.J. Yeldon will man the rushing duties. He has been steady on the season, but has not rushed for over 58 yards in any Game. 

Dallas went under .500 in their last Game losing to the Houston Texans 19-16. The Cowboys only had 292 total yards in the Game, the Texans has 462, and the team failed to rush for over 100 yards. Prescott was picked off twice and passed for 208 yards with a TD as well and after two big Games rushing for at least 127 yards Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 54 yards averaging a weak 2.7 yards per carry.

The Cowboys need to feed Elliot the ball in on the ground and in the air. While the Jaguars lead the NFL in pass defense they rank 14th in run defense, so look for Elliot to get a heavy workload. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Jaguars

5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games

8-2 ATS in their last 10 Games after an ATS loss

Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 road Games 

 

Cowboys 

3-10 ATS in their last 10 Games facing a team with a winning record

7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games in October

Under record of 12-2 in their last 14 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Cowboys are a mess and they really have not gotten it going this season on the offensive side of the football. However, their defense has been good for the most part and they will step up in this Game. Elliot will have a big Game and while America’s Team may not get the win they will at least cover the spread.