By: Jason Green
The Jaguars and their lost season got worse in their last Game losing to the Washington Redskins 16-13. They had the Game in hand, but a late tipped pass fell to the Skins and the bad luck for Jacksonville continued. They still have a great defense and they ran the ball well even in the loss to Washington, but they have no pass Game to speak of.
The Dolphins lost badly in their last Game to drop them to .500 on the season and their playoff chances are slim. They need to win out and get help from a slew of teams that are all sitting at 8-6 in the AFC in the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans. Miami had won two in a row scoring 55 points before their last Game where they only put up 17 points and GAve up 41 in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10 SU 4-8-2 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-7 SU 8-6 ATS)
The Dolphins are a 5-point home favorite with a total of 39.5.
This season the Jaguars are 4-8-2 ATS with an O/U record of 6-8 and the Dolphins are 8-6 ATS with an O/U record of 7-7.
These teams have not met since the 2015 season.
The favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight Games between these teams.
In their last Game, the Jags were at home and lost to the Washington Redskins 16-13. While they only GAve up 245 total yards they only GAined 192 yards with 172 of them coming on the ground. Jax only passed for 20 total yards in the Game and on top of that they turned the ball over two times and did not force a turnover.
Cody Kessler was 9/17 for 57 yards, but lost 37 yards on three sacks and while not the most mobile of QB’s he also led the team with 68 rushing yards. Leonard Fournette rushed for 46 yards and for Jax to win this Game they will have to feed him the rock often and he has to play well. At least he will be facing a Miami run defense that only ranks 31st in the league and GAve up 220 rushing yards in their last Game.
The Jags have failed to cover the spread in their last five Games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous Game.
The Dolphins were on the road in their last Game and they lost to the Minnesota Vikings 41-17. They were outscored 21-0 in the first quarter, were outGAined 418 yards to 193 yards and while they rushed for 156 yards they only had 37 passing yards.
Ryan Tannehill was 11/24 for 101 yards with no TD and no INT, but was sacked a whopping nine times for a loss of 71 yards. Kalen Ballage led the Fish with 123 rushing yards, but 75 of those yards came on one run. Tannehill has to have a better outing in this Game airing it out more often in a desperation Game and Jacksonville had a D that ranks 2nd against the pass and 19th against the run.
Jaguars ATS Trends
1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 Games
0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road Games
Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 road Games
Dolphins ATS Trends
6-1 ATS in their last 7 home Games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after a loss
Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games
Jason’s Pick: Not only have the Dolphins won six of their seven home Games this season, but are 6-1 ATS in those seven home Games. Look for that trend to continue, as the Jags will struggle to Scoreagain while Miami will put up some points. The Dolphins will keep their slight playoff hopes alive with a win in this Game and at home they will also cover the spread.