Jaguars – Texans Free Pick against the Spread

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NFL Pick

ATS Trends


By: Jason Green 


Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10 SU 5-8-2 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (10-5 SU 6-8-1 ATS) 

The Jaguars have had a disappointing season after reaching the AFC title Game last season, but they are coming off a win. They had lost their previous two Games and can play a little spoiler in this Game facing a Texans’ team that needs a win, and help, to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Blake Bortles is back under center for the team that has had major issues scoring this season while their defense ranks a solid 5th in the league. This season Jacksonville is only 2-5 on the road. 

The Texans are coming off a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and it was a costly loss. It slipped them to the 3rd seed in the AFC, so they need to win this Game and have the Patriots lose to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Houston has lost two of their last three Games where their D let them down, but at least in this Game they will be facing a Jacksonville offense that only ranks 27th in the league. 

The Texans are an 8.5-point home favorite with a total of 40.5.  

This season the Jaguars are 5-8-2 ATS with an O/U record of 6-9 and the Texans are 6-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 7-8. 

Earlier this season in Jacksonville the Texans beat the Jags 20-7. 

The Jags are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Games facing the Texans in Houston. 

In their last Game, the Jags were on the road and played great D in their 17-7 win over the Miami Dolphins. They held the Fish scoreless in the last three quarters and for the Game they outGAined Miami 244 yards to 183 yards, only GAve up 62 rushing yards, and forced two turnovers. 

After losing his starting job for a few Games Bortles came back in the Dolphins Game taking over for Cody Kessler and went 5/6 for 39 yards with no TD and no INT. Look for him to get the start in this Game under center and in his last start he has two picks and only one TD. Jax does not have the best WR corps and in the win over Miami Carlos Hyde and Leonard Fournette combined for 90 rushing yards, but Fournette only averaged a paltry 2.4 yards per carry. 

Fournette was injured in the first matchup with the Texans and he may get a heavy workload in this Game. On the season Houston’s defense only ranks 29th in the league against the pass, but 4th against the run and in the loss to the Eagles they played good run D, but GAve up 462 passing yards. 

The Texans were on the road in their last Game losing to the Philadelphia Eagles 32-30 where they GAve up the winning field goal as time expired. They GAve up 519 yards in the Game and had 371 yards and they took the loss even though they forced three turnovers and only committed one.

Deshaun Watson passed for 339 yards with two TD and no INT in the loss to the Eagles and DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 104 yards, which was his 2nd straight Game over 100 receiving yards. Watson also led Houston with 39 rushing yards while Alfred Blue led all RB’s with only 14 yards on Four carries. 

Watson and company will be facing a Jax defense that ranks 2nd against the pass and 18th against the run.  


Jaguars ATS Trends

1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road Games

4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record

Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road Games 


Texans ATS Trends

3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a losing record 

6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 Games

1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 Games after a loss 


Jason’s Pick: Have to go with the Texans in this one, as they are back home, have a lot to play for, and have a much better offense. Watson will get it done and the Houston defense will shut down Bortles and company. Even giving 8.5 points the Texans are the pick in this AFC South Game. 

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