By: Jason Green
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8 SU 4-6-2 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (6-6 SU 6-6 ATS)
The Jaguars snapped their seven-Game losing streak in their last Game playing killer defense in a 6-0 win over the Indianapolis Colts. They shut down a Colts’ team that had won five in a row and was clicking on offense. Jacksonville can only finish the season with a .500 record if they win out, but have to beat a Titans’ team that beat them at home earlier this season in a defensive battle.
The Titans snapped their two-Game losing streak in their last Game beating the Anew York Jets 26-22. They rallied after being 16 points down and scored a late TD to ice the Game. The win got Tennessee to .500 and they are in the AFC Wild Card race, but need to finish the season strong and, likely, get some help. The Titans had only totaled 27 points in losing two in a row before scoring 26 points in their last Game.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Titans are a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 38.
This season the Jaguars are 4-6-2 ATS with an O/U record of 5-7 and the Titans are 6-6 ATS with an O/U record of 5-7.
These teams met in Week 3 at Jacksonville where the Titans beat the Jaguars 9-6.
The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games against the Jaguars.
The Jags were on the road in their last Game shutting out the Colts beating them 6-0. They had fewer yards in the Game (265-211), but forced two turnovers only committing one and they only allowed 41 rushing yards.
In his first start Cody Kessler was not bad, but not great either going 18/24 for 150 yards with no TD and no INT and was sacked three times. T.J. Yeldon led the team with 49 receiving yards and Carlos Hyde led them with only 36 rushing yards and only averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Jacksonville will get RB Leonard Fournette back after his one-Game suspension and he has rushed for 95 yards in each of his last two Games. He was out with an injury in Week 3 when the Jags lost at home to the Titans.
The Titans have a solid pass defense, but their weakness on D is against the run. In the win over the Jets in their last Game they only GAve up 280 total yards, but they allowed 165 rushing yards.
In the win over the Jets in their last Game the Titans were at home outscoring New York 13-0 in the 4th quarter for the 26-22 win. They had 405 total yards in the Game and rushed for 130 yards and even in the win they were only 1/11 on 3rd down.
Marcus Mariota passed for 282 yards with two TD and one INT and he threw an 11-yard TD with only 36 seconds remaining to give the Titans the win. Taywan Taylor led the Titans with 104 yards, Marcus Mariota led the team with 43 rushing yards, with 27 yards coming on one run, and Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis combined for 76 rushing yards.
The Jags rank 3rd in the league in pass defense and while only ranking 16th in run defense they stuffed the run in their last Game.
Key ATS Trends
1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 Games
0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road Games
Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games after a win
12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home Games
1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday Games
6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games facing teams from the AFC South
Under record of 5-2 in Titans last 7 Games after ACCumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous Game
Jason’s Pick: Even though the Jags snapped their long losing streak in their last Game playing great defense and they will get Fournette back the Titans are still the pick in this Game. Jacksonville only has one road win on the season and they will not add to that total this Thursday night. The Titans will not blow out the Jags, but in a low scoring affair they will win and cover the spread.