Jets – Patriots NFL Pick with Analysis and Trends

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ATS Trends

NFL Pick


By: Jason Green 


New York Jets (4-11 SU 5-9-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (10-5 SU 8-7 ATS) 

The Jets have not had a good season, to say, the least, but if there is a silver lining is that Sam Darnold may be the QB the team has been looking for. He was solid in the last Game, which was a tough home OT loss to the Green Bay Packers and with New York having a ton of cap space they will be busy this off-season. They simply don’t have the talent around Darnold on the offensive side of the football. The Jets have lost two in a row and only have one win in their last nine Games. 

Well, it is pretty easy for the Patriots, as they are the #2 seed in the AFC after their win and the Houston Texans lost in their last Game. However, if they lose this Game and Houston wins their finale New England will not get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. They wrapped up the AFC East in their last Game with a 24-12 win over the Buffalo Bills and that snapped their two-Game losing streak. New England has not been great on offense in their last two Games, but in that span, they only GAve up 29 points. Tom Brady did not have to do much in the last Game with the Pats racking up 273 rushing yards. 

The Patriots are a 13-point home favorite with a total of 47.5.  

This season the Jets are 5-9-1 ATS with an O/U record of 10-5 and the Patriots are 8-7 ATS with an O/U record of 5-10. 

Earlier this season in New York the Patriots beat the Jets 27-13. 

The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Games against the Patriots. 

The Jets were at home in their last Game and lost to the Green Bay Packers 44-38 in OT. While they GAined 370 yards and had a solid Game in the air they only rushed for 47 yards and GAve up a whopping 540 yards allowing Aaron Rodgers to pass for 442 yards. 

Darnold was solid in the Game passing for 341 yards with three TD and no INT and Robbie Anderson led the Jets with 140 receiving yards. Darnold got little help from the run Game with Elijah McGuire leading the team with only 35 rushing yards and he only averaged 2.5 yards per carry. Darnold has five TD and no INT in his last two Games. 

The Patriots have had issues against the pass this season only ranking 23rd in the league in pass defense while ranking a legit 13th in run defense. 

In their last Game, the Patriots were at home and wrapped up the AFC East title with a 24-12 win over the Buffalo Bills. They shut out the Bills in the first half and for the Game they had 390 yards and GAve up 289 yards. Not only did New England rush for 273 yards, but they held Buffalo to only 72 rushing yards. 

Brady did not have a Brady-line Game in the win over the Bills with only 126 passing yards with one TD and two picks. However, rookie RB Sony Michel rushed for 116 yards and three other Pats’ players rushed for at least 39 yards. Michel had not rushed for over 63 yards in three straight Games before going for 116 in the last one, but when he faced the Jets in late November he racked up 133 rushing yards. 

New York only ranks 25th in the league defending the pass and 26th defending the run. 


Jets ATS Trends

0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record

2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Games

Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games 


Patriots ATS Trends

36-17 ATS in their last 53 Games

16-5 ATS in their last 21 Games facing a team with a losing record 

37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 home Games 


Jason’s Pick: The Patriots did not cover the big spread in their win over the Bills in their last Game, but they will do so in this season finale. Brady will bouNCe back and have a good Game, Michel will have another solid Game, on the ground, and the New England defense will step up. The Pats will win and cover at home and hope the Texans lose their finale, so they get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. 

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