Lions – Cowboys Week 4 Free NFL Pick

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Lions

vs.

Cowboys 

Week 4

NFL Pick

9/30/18   

By: Jason Green 

  

Detroit Lions (1-2 SU 2-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-2 SU 1-2 ATS)

 

The Lions may have saved their season in their last Game, which was an impressive 26-10 drubbing of the New England Patriots. After their D was torched to the tune of giving up 78 points in their first two Games they came up big in the win over New England shutting down Tom Brady and only allowing 209 total yards. Detroit can even their record with a win in this Game facing a Dallas team that has a lot of pressure on them. 

“America’s Team” is sitting at 1-2 and while the defense has been ok the same cannot be said for the offense. Dak Prescott has not looked good and overall the Cowboys only rank 30th in the league on offense. Ezekiel Elliot had his first 100-yard rushing Game in the last Game, but Dallas still lose falling on the road to the Seattle Seahawks 24-13. Dallas has not scored over 13 points in their first three Games. 

At YOUWAGER sportsbook the Cowboys are a 3-point favorite with a total sitting at 43.5. 

This season the Lions are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 2-1 and the Cowboys are 1-2 ATS with an O/U record of 0-3. 

The last time these teams met it was in 2016 in Dallas where the Cowboys doubled-up on the Lions beating them 42-21. 

The underdog has covered the spread in five of the last seven Games between these teams. 

In the Lions win over the Pats they held them to 12 first downs, they had 25, and they only allowed 120 passing yards. Matthew Stafford passed for 262 yards with a couple of TD and he also had a pick with three players having at least 53 receiving yards. One of the surprises in the Game was that RB Kerryon Johnson rushed for 101 yards and that was the first time in 70 Games for Detroit where they had a 100-yard rusher. Yeah, Stafford has not had much help in the last few seasons. 

While Johnson rushed for over 100 yards the key to stopping the Lions is containing Stafford. After Four picks in the season opener he has five TD and only one INT in the last two Games. He will be facing a Dallas pass defense that ranks 4th in the league and also had gotten good play from the pass rush, which has 11 sacks, which is tied for 2nd in the league. 

The Cowboys have a ton of pressure on them being 1-2 and a team that has failed to move the ball. The Dallas offense ranks 30th in the league, which is the main reason the team is under .500. Prescott does not have a good WR corps and while he has been ok running the ball in the three Games he has not passed for over 170 yards. Elliot is the key in this Game for the Cowboys, as he will be up against a Detroit run D that ranks last in the league. 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Lions

6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Games facing a team with a losing record

5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games

4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games facing teams from the NFC

Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road Games

 

Cowboys

3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a losing record

Under record of 11-1 in their last 12 Games

Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 home Games 

Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games facing a team with a losing record 

 

Jason’s Pick: Hate to pick the Cowboys in this one, as I really am not a fan to say the least, but they will get it done in the Big D this Sunday. Look for Elliot to have a big Game, the Cowboys’ D will contain Stafford, and Prescott will quiet the critics, for at least one Game, with a solid performance. Dallas will win at home and cover the spread and get to .500 on the season.