Green Bay Packers
By: Jason Green
Green Bay Packers (3-2-1 SU 2-4 ATS) vs. L.A. Rams (7-0 SU 4-3 ATS)
The Packers are coming off a bye and that is good news for Green Bay fans. They have won two of their last three Games and Aaron Rodgers has had an extra week to rest his gimpy knee. He showed signs of the Rodgers we are used to seeing in a late long drive in the Packers last Game where they won as time expired on a field goal.
Interesting fact in that as a 9.5-point underdog the Packers are the biggest underdog ever while Aaron Rodgers had been under center and active.
The Rams are the lone unbeaten team in the league and they are legit on both sides of the ball. They rank in the top five in the league in ppg and points allowed, they rank 1st in rushing yards per Game, and the team is coming off a blowout win. L.A. is already legit, but they may show they are THE team to beat the NFC if they can win and cover in this Game facing Rodgers and the Packers.
In the Packers last five Games with the Rams they have covered the spread every time.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Rams are a 9.5-point home favorite with a total sitting at 56.5.
This season the Packers are 2-4 ATS with an O/U record of 5-1 and the Rams are 4-3 ATS with an O/U record of 3-4.
The last time these two NFC teams met was in the 2015 season.
The Packers beat the San Francisco Giants 33-30 in their last Game before the bye week. Rodgers went off passing for 425 yards with two TD and no picks and three WR’s had over 100 receiving yards. It would help if Rodgers could get some help from the run Game, which has not happened much this season. Aaron Jones led the team with only 41 rushing yards and Rodgers may have to carry the load, oNCe again, with his arm.
The Rams rank 9th in the league in pass defense and 12th in run defense. Getting to Rodgers will be key and the Green Bay QB shed his knee brace and if he reGAins his mobility L.A. has to pressure him and not give him time to extend plays.
Like the Packers the Rams faced the 49ers in their last Game, but it was not nearly as close, as L.A. beat San Fran 39-10. The Rams’ defense forced Four turnovers and they had a balanced attack on offense. While Jared Goff and Todd Gurley did not have big Games, they did not have to and they did not have a heavy workload. Goff has talent on the outside and Gurley is an early season MVP candidate and leads the NFL in rushing yards.
The Packers have played well on the season against the pass ranking 5th in the league, but their run defense only ranks 22nd, which has to be a major coNCern facing Gurley.
Key Betting Trends
0-4 ATS in their last 4 road Games
2-7 ATS in their last 9 Games overall
Over record of 23-6 in their last 29 Games
6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 Games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous Game
Over record of 7-3 in their last 10 Games following a win
Jason’s Pick: The favorite has covered in 10 of the last 11 Games between these teams, but that trend will not continue. However, what will continue is that the Packers will cover for the 6th straight time facing the Rams. Green Bay will not get the win, but Rodgers will have a huge Game and help his team stay close, which is why they will cover getting 9.5 points.