Green Bay Packers
vs.
Minnesota Vikings
NFL Pick
ATS Trends
11/25/2018
By: Jason Green
Green Bay Packers (4-5-1 SU 4-5-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-4-1 SU 5-4-1 ATS)
This Game is HUGE for both teams that are battling it out for a playoff spot. Both trail the 7-3 Chicago Bears in the NFC North and a loss would be costly for both teams, especially the Packers, who are under .500.
The Packers have lost three of their last Four Games with the losses coming against the Rams, Patriots, and Seahawks. Their D has given up at least 27 points in the three losses in their last Four Games and Aaron Rodgers needs some help from that unit.
The Vikings have lost two of their last three Games and three of their Four losses have come facing teams that are currently leading their division. Kirk Cousins has been up and down in his first season under center for Minnesota. Interesting fact that this Game and the Vikings last one wes in primetime and dating back to his days with the Redskins Cousins is only 4-12 in primetime Games.
The Vikings are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 48.
This season the Packers are 4-5-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-4 and the Vikings are 5-4-1 ATS with an O/U record of 5-5.
Early in the season in Green Bay the Packers and Vikings played to a rare tie.
The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home Games facing the Packers.
The Packers were on the road in their last Game losing to the Seattle Seahawks 27-24. After a fast start where they scored 14 points in the first quarter they only scored 10 points the rest of the Game. They were narrowly outGAined 378 yards to 359 yards and while they forced the Game’s only turnover they only rushed for 48 yards while giving up 173 rushing yards.
Rodgers passed for 340 yards with two TD and no INT, but he was sacked five times and got little help from the run Game. Davante Adams had 166 receiving yards and Aaron Jones led Green Bay with only 40 rushing yards and he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Jones rushed for 145 yards in the previous Game and had been playing well before struggling in the loss to Seattle.
The Vikings rank 4th in the league defending the run and 6th defending the pass, but they did give up 146 rushing yards in their last Game.
Tin their last Game the Vikings were on the road and lost to the Chicago Bears 25-20. They only had 268 total yards in the Game, the Bears had 308, and they only rushed for a grand total of 26 yards.
Cousins passed for 262 yards with two TD and two INT and Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen combined for 20 catches for 192 yards. Dalvin Cook was a no show rushing for only 12 yards on nine carries and the Vikes did not run much later in the Game after being down 14-0 at the half.
Cook may get his chances in this big division eNCounter, as Green Bay ranks a legit 5th in the league in pass defense, but only 26th in run defense.
ATS Trends
Packers
1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road Games
2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games after a loss
Over record of 24-9 in their last 33 Games
Vikings
26-9 ATS in their last 35 Games after a loss
12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 Games facing a team with a losing record
Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home Games
Jason’s Pick: Hard to believe the Packers are under .500 after 10 Games and they need a win, badly, in this Game. Rodgers will come through when it matters and not only will Green Bay cover the spread in the LAnd of 10,000 LAkes, but they will also cover the spread.