Panthers – Lions NFL Pick with Analysis and Trends

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Carolina Panthers

vs.

Detroit Lions 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends

11/18/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

Carolina Panthers (6-3 SU 5-4 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (3-6 SU 5-4 ATS)

 

The Panthers were rolling winners of three in a row before they headed to Pittsburgh last Thursday night and ran into a Steelers team that lit them up for 52 points in a loss. Carolina’s defense has been the main issue on the season only ranking tied for 23rd in points allowed, but their offense has been legit ranking 9th in the league in ppg. Cam Newton leads an offense that ranks 3rd in the league in rushing yards per Game. 

The Lions have lost three in a row and they are in the basement of the NFC North. They have only totaled 45 points in losing their last three Games while giving up 86 points. Matthew Stafford has been ok this season, but he has not put up the numbers we are used to seeing. Detroit only ranks 19th in the league in passing yards per Game and 20th in ppg. 

At MyBookie sportsbook the Panthers are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 51. 

This season the Panthers are 5-4 ATS with an O/U record of 6-3 and the Lions are 5-4 ATS with an O/U record of 6-3. 

These teams met last season in Detroit where the Panthers beat the Lions 27-24. 

In the last five Games between these teams the Over record is 3-1-1.  

Last Thursday night the Panthers ran into a buzz saw, which was the Pittsburgh Steelers losing 52-21. They were outscored 31-14 in the first half and they GAve up 457 yards and only GAined 242 yards. 

Cam Newton passed for 192 yards with two TD and one INT and even in the loss Christian McCaffrey had a big Game. He led the Panthers with 77 rushing yards and a TD averaging a legit 5.5 yards per carry and also led the team with 61 receiving yards and two TD. Newton had not been picked off in his previous three Games before the loss to Pittsburgh and in that Game, he only rushed for 10 yards on two carries. 

The Panthers are a run-first team, which is not good for the Lions considering they only rank 28th in the league in run defense. 

In their last Game, the Lions were on the road in the Windy City and lost to the Chicago Bears 34-22. They were outscored 26-7 in the first half, they had three turnovers and did not force any, and were outGAined by nearly 100 yards (402-305). 

While Stafford passed for 272 yards with two TD he was also picked off twice. Three players for Detroit had at least 55 receiving yards led by Kenny Golladay (78 yards 1 TD) and Kerryon Johnson rushed for 51 yards, but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. 

Stafford and company will be facing a Carolina team that was shredded on defense in their bad loss to the Steelers and, overall, they rank 22nd in the league in pass D and 9th in run D. 

 

Panthers  ATS Trends

2-5 ATS in their last 7 road Games

10-1 ATS in their last 11 Games after a loss

Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 Games

Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Games following a loss 

Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS loss  

Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games in November 

Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road Games  

Panthers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 Games as a road favorite 

Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games on turf 

 

Lions  ATS Trends

3-10 ATS in their last 13 Games facing a team with a winning record

0-4 ATS in their last 4 home Games facing a team with a winning road record

Over record of 9-4 in their last 13 home Games

Over record of 7-3 in their last 10 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: While the Panthers have only covered in two of their last seven road Games they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 Games following a loss. That last trend will continue, as after getting smoked in their last Game they will bouNCe back in the Motor City beating the Lions and covering the spread.