Patriots At Bills Monday Night NFL Pick With Betting Odds And Analysis

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New England Patriots

vs.

Buffalo Bills 

NFL Pick

Betting Odds

10/29/2018  

By: Jason Green 

  

New England Patriots (5-2 SU 4-3 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-5 SU 3-4 ATS)

 

After losing two in a row the Patriots have reeled off Four straight wins and they are where they are used to being in first place in the AFC East. They have a balanced offense and rank 4th in the league in ppg. Their defense has not been playing well as of late, as even in winning their last two Games they have given up 71 points. 

The Bills have lost two in a row and they rank dead last in the league in ppg (11.3 ppg) and passing yards per Game. To say their QB situation is not good would be an understatement. Rookie Josh Allen is injured and will not play in this Game and Derek Anderson will get the start even though in his first start for Buffalo after singing with them on October 9th he three INT and lost a fumble. With INT MAChine Nate Peterman the backup Anderson will get another start in this Monday Night Game. 

At YOUWAGER sportsbook the Patriots are a big 14-point road favorite with a total sitting at 44.

This season the Patriots are 4-3 ATS with an O/U record of 4-3 and the Bills are 3-4 ATS with an O/U record of 2-5. 

This is the first Game of the season between these AFC East rivals and last season the Patriots beat the Bills twice. 

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games against the Bills and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Games facing them in Buffalo. 

In their last Game, the Patriots were on the road and they beat the Chicago Bears 38-31. The Pats had fewer yards in the Game (453 to 381) and they had more turnovers (3-2), but still won. 

Tom Brady passed for 277 yards with three TD and one INT and was only sacked oNCe. Josh Gordon had his best Game for the Pats with 100 receiving yards and Chris HoGAn had 63 receiving yards. James White and Kenjon Barner combined to rush for 76 yards and Sony Michel, who rushed for over 100 yards in two of three Games before the win over Chicago, is doubtful for this Game with a knee injury. 

The Bills rank a solid 4th in the league in pass defense and a respectable 16th in run defense, but they have given up 57 points in their last 2 Games. 

The Bills last Game is one they would like to forget losing to the Indianapolis Colts 37-5. Buffalo did have 303 total yards in the Game, the Colts had 376 yards, but they had five turnovers and they GAve up 220 rushing yards. Anderson passed for 175 yards with no TD and three INT and also lost a fumble. Chris Ivory had a pretty good Game in the backfield rushing for 81 yards on a 5.1 per carry average. LeSean McCoy is doubtful in this Game due to coNCussion protocol. 

The Patriots only rank 25th in the league in pass defense and 21st in run defense, but can the Bills take advantage of that? 

 

Key Betting Trends 

Patriots

15-5 ATS in their last 20 road Games

9-2 ATS in their last 11 Games facing a team with a losing record 

Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 road Games

 

Bills

5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games after a loss

1-4 ATS in their last 5 home Games facing a team with a winning road record 

Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 Games 

 

Jason’s Pick: The Patriots are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Monday Night Games, but don’t look for that trend to continue. Even giving 14 points on the road the Pats are the pick in this Game, as their offense is soaring while the Bills’ offense is sinking. This Game could and will get ugly, as New England will lay a beat-down on the Bills easily winning and covering the big spread.