11/11/2018
By: Jason Green
New England Patriots (7-2 SU 6-3 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-4 SU 4-3 ATS)
The Patriots have won six in a row and were impressive in their last Game on Sunday night beating Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers 31-17. They are atop the AFC East with a two-Game lead over the Miami Dolphins. On the season, New England has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball and Tom Brady leads an offense that ranks 4th in the league in ppg and has averaged 35.5 ppg in their six-Game winning streak.
The Titans snapped their three-Game skid with a great 28-14 road win over the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night. They had only totaled 31 points in their three-Game losing streak, but their offense was legit in beating America’s Team. Tennessee is at .500 and in 2nd place in the AFC South trailing the 6-3 Houston Texans. The Titans are led by a defense that ranks first in the league only giving up an average of 17.6 ppg.
The Patriots are a 7-point road favorite with a total of 48.5.
This season the Patriots are 6-3 ATS with an O/U record of 4-5 and the Titans are 4-3 ATS with an O/U record of 2-5.
These teams met last season in the divisional playoffs in New England where the Patriots beat the Titans 35-14.
The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five Games facing the Titans.
In their last Game, the Pats were at home in their win over the Packers where they had 433 yards, GAve up 368 yards, and forced the Game’s only turnover. The Game was tied 17-17 after three quarters, but New England outscored Green Bay 14-0 in the 4th quarter.
Tom Brady had another solid Game in the win over the Packers passing for 294 yards with a TD and no INT and Josh Gordon had 130 receiving yards and a TD. Cordarrelle Patterson led the Pats with 61 rushing yards and the team’s leading rusher on the season rookie Sony Michel did not go for a 2nd straight Game with a knee injury and he is listed as OUt for this Game. Rob Gronkowski also missed the Packers’ Game and is a question mark this Sunday. Gordon has been a solid pickup for New England and has at least 100 receiving yards in two of his last three Games.
Tennessee ranks 8th in the league defending the pass and 16th defending the run and they held the Cowboys to 297 yards in their last Game including holding them to only 72 rushing yards.
The Titans were in the Big D in their last Game beating the Dallas Cowboys 28-14 where they had balaNCe on offense and their defense shut out the Cowboys in the 2nd half.
Marcus Mariota passed for 240 yards with two TD and no picks and six players had at least 21 receiving yards. While Tennessee did rush for 125 yards in the Dallas Game Dion Lewis led the team with 61 rushing yards, but only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Mariota had not passed for a TD in two straight Games before going for two against the Cowboys.
Mariota may be counted on for another solid Game, as he will be facing the weakness of the New England defense, which is their pass D where they only rank 26th in the league.
Key Betting Trends
Patriots
16-5 ATS in their last 21 road Games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games after ACCumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous Game
Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road Games
34-13 ATS in all Games over the last 3 seasons.
15-5 ATS in road Games over the last 3 seasons.
25-9 ATS against Conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
11-3 ATS in Games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Titans
5-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games
10-3 ATS in their last 13 Games facing s team with a winning record
Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games
Jason’s Pick: The Pats have covered in their last five Games facing the Titans and that trend will continue. Brady and company will beat up on the Titans and their D will play pretty good and New England will win their 7th in a row and cover the spread as well.