Patriots Dolphins NFL Pick ATS Trends

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New England Patriots


Miami Dolphins 

NFL Pick

ATS Trends


By: Jason Green 


New England Patriots (9-3 SU 8-4 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-6 SU 7-5 ATS)

Big shock that the Patriots have a big lead in the AFC East and are playing well in December. That is usually the case for New England and they are coming off a solid 24-10 home win over a Minnesota Vikings team that has a great defense. While Tom Brady leads a legit Pats’ offense and gets most of the press the defense for New England has been great as of late only allowing 23 points in their last two Games. 

The Dolphins kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 21-17 win over the Buffalo Bills in their last Game. They snapped their two-Game skid with that win and Ryan Tannehill is back under center after missing most of the season with an injury. Miami had given up 58 points in losing two straight before only giving up 17 points in their last Game. However, that Game was facing the 4-8 Bills that have offensive issues this season and with Brady and company coming to town the Dolphins have a tall task in what is, essentially, a must win Game. 

The Patriots are a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 48.  

This season the Patriots are 8-4 ATS with an O/U record of 4-8 and the Dolphins are 7-5 ATS with an O/U record of 5-7. 

Earlier this season in New England the Patriots laid a 38-7 beat down on the Dolphins. 

The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games facing the Patriots. 

The Pats were at home in their last Game where they beat the Minnesota Vikings 24-10. They racked up 471 total yards and only GAve up 278 yards, rushed for 160 yards, and forced two turnovers and only committed one. 

Brady passed for 311 yards with a TD and a pick and James While led three players with at least 53 receiving yards with 92 receiving yards. New England used some trickery in the Game with some WR’s getting handoffs and rookie Son Michel rushed for 63 yards on 17 carries. 

Miami does not rank in the top 20 in the league in pass defense or run defense and their run D only ranks 30th in the league. The Dolphins need to forget about their Week 4 blowout loss to the Pats where they only had 172 total yards while giving up 449 yards. 

The Dolphins beat the Bills 21-17 in their last Game even though they were outGAined 415 yards to 175 yards. They were a little lucky for Buffalo to get a late taunting penalty and they forced three turnovers while only committing one. 

Tannehill passed for 137 yards, but made the throws count with three TD and one INT. Kenyan Drake was the lead rusher with only 31 yards and as a team Miami only rushed for 60 yards. The Dolphins have to execute better on offense in this Game, as Tom Brady rarely makes mistakes and they will not get many turnovers. 

The Pats played great D in their last Game and have done so for their last two. They still only rank 25th in the league defending the pass and 13th defending the run, but have played well on both fronts in their last two Games. 


Key ATS Trends 


17-6 ATS in their last 23 road Games

4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games in December 

5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games facing teams from the AFC East 

Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 Games 



5-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games

4-10 ATS in their last 14 Games facing a team with a winning record

Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games  


Jason’s Pick: The Fish have covered in five of their last six home Games facing the Pats and have covered five of their last six home Games overall. Throw those betting trends out the window, as in December even in Miami the Patriots will win this Game and cover sending the Dolphins under .500.