New England Patriots
Pick – Preview
By: Jason Green
New England Patriots (1-0 SU 1-0 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0 SU 1-0 ATS)
This Game is a rematch of last season’s AFC title Game where the Jaguars had their chance, but could not stop Tom Brady late in the Game in the 24-20 loss. Both the Pats and Jags won their season opening Games and last season’s title Game was in New England while this regular season Game is in the Sunshine State with Jacksonville the betting underdog.
The Jaguars have to feel good heading into this Game after a solid defensive effort in their season opening 20-15 road win over the New York Giants. However, their young star RB in Leonard Fournette left the last Game with a hamstring injury and he is listed as Questionable for this Game and his loss would be a big blow for Jax.
The Patriots won their season opening Game at home beating the Houston Texans 27-20. Brady had a solid Game, but he is dealing with new WR’s and the run Game in the Houston win was not great. Still, the Patriots are the Patriots and not only have Brady under center, but they have covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 road Games.
Early in the season both the Patriots and Jaguars are 1-0 ATS with an O/U record of 0-1-0.
In the only noted head to head betting trend between these teams the Under record is 3-1-1 in the last five Games these teams have faced each other.
In the Patriots win over the Texans in Week 1 Brady was legit passing for 277 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT, on a tipped pass, and Rob Gronkowski led New England with 123 receiving yards and a TD. The team has had a revolving door since preseason with WR’s and they just signed two new ones this week biding time until #1 WR Julian Edelman gets back from his Four-Game suspension.
The Patriots had a decent ground Game in the win over Houston and held the Texans on 2/11 on 3rd down, but they also GAve up 167 rushing yards. They are hoping they see Fournette on the sideline, as the Jags have to run the ball to win.
In the Jaguars 20-15 win over the New York Giants in their opening Game they had 19 fewer overall yards, but their run Game got it done, they forced two turnovers, and they set the tone with their defense. Blake Bortles had an unspectacular opener passing for 176 yards with a TD and an INT and he has a decent WR corps. If Fournette cannot go in this Game T.J. Yeldon will take most of the snaps and in the New York win he rushed for 51 yards and averaged 3.6 yards per carry.
The Jacksonville pass defense will obviously be important in this Game facing Brady. In the Giants Game they GAve up 210 yards in the air, but had a pick and they did not allow a passing TD. Jax had two sacks in the New York Game and pressuring Brady is needed in this AFC matchup.
Key Betting Trends
14-3 ATS in their last 17 road Games
15-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
9-1 ATS in their last 10 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record
Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 road Games
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games following a straight up win
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a ATS win
ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC
7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 Games overall
Jason’s Pick: New England has some issues mainly in the WR position, but they still have Brady under center and Bill Belichick roaming the sidelines. It is only the 2nd Game of the season and you think the Jags will risk further injury to Fournette playing him? I think not. The Pats will get the W in this Game and cover the spread on the road moving to 2-0 on the young season.