By: Jason Green
L.A. Rams (11-1 SU 5-6-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (8-4 SU 8-4 ATS)
The Rams have the best record in football and with their last win they wrapped up the NFC West. Also, with the loss in the last Game by the New Orleans Saints, who the Rams lost their only GAve against this season, L.A, has the top seed in the NFC. They had given up 82 points in two Games, both wins, before only allowing 16 in their last Game. The Rams have three legit MVP candidates in Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, who leads the league in rushing yards, and Aaron Donald, who leads the league in sacks.
The Bears had their five-Game win streak snapped in their last Game where they came back from 10 points down with less than two minutes in the Game to tie it, but lost in OT. Starting QB Mitchell Trubisky has missed the last two Games, where the Bears are 1-1, and he is listed as day-to-day. Chicago is in first place in the NFC North and their main competition in the division are the 6-5-1 Minnesota Vikings, who they face on the road in the season finale.
The Rams are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 52.5.
This season the Rams are 5-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 6-6 and the Bears are 8-4 ATS with an O/U record of 8-4.
These teams have not met since the 2015 season.
The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Games facing the Rams.
In their last Game, the Rams were on the road and beat the Detroit Lions 30-16. While they only had 34 more total yards (344-310) they rushed for 149 yards and held the Lions to 2/12 on 3rd down.
Goff passed for 207 yards with a TD and an INT and Robert Woods and Brandin Cook combined for 129 receiving yards. Gurley had a big Game rushing for 132 yards with two TD averaging a solid 5.7 yards per carry. Gurley has rushed for at least 120 yards in three of his last five Games and not only does he lead the league in rushing yards, but also has 46 receptions and Four TD.
Gurley will be tested in this Game facing a Chicago run defense that ranks 2nd in the league and their pass D is not bad either ranking 11th.
The Bears were in the Big Apple in their last Game losing to the New York Giants 30-27 in OT. While they outGAined the Giants 376 yards to 338 yards they were only 2/15 on 3rd down and had three turnovers and only forced one.
Chase Daniel got his 2nd start of the season in the loss to the Giants and passed for 285 yards with a TD, but had two picks. Tarik Cohen was his main target with 156 receiving yards and Jordan Howard rushed for 76 yards. Howard has been up and down on the season, but he has to play well in this Game to move the chains on the ground and eat up the clock keeping the dynamic offense of the Rams on the sidelines.
The Rams have a balanced defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense (17th) and run defense (18th).
Key ATS Trends
2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Games
0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Games facing a team with a winning record
Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record
5-1 ATS in their last 6 Games
15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home Games
Over record of 4-1 in their last five Games
Jason’s Pick: I think the Bears will be careful with Trubisky and Daniel will get another start in this Game. While the Rams have the NFC West wrapped up they still have a lot to play for and want to keep the top seed in the NFC to have home field advantage in the playoffs. The Rams will not blow out the Bears, but they will win handily and cover the spread sending Chicago to their 2nd loss in a row.