1/13/2019
By: Jason Green
L.A. Chargers (13-4 SU 10-7 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (11-5 SU 8-9 ATS)
The Chargers have won six of their last seven Games, iNCluding their last two, and they beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road this season in the Wild Card round last week. Speaking of the road it has been kind to the Bolts this season, as they are 8-1 on the road and have not lost a road Game since losing to the Rams in Week 3. Phillip Rivers has had a great season and the defense is a good one that dominated the Ravens in their last Game until late.
Hey big shock, the Patriots are hosting a division playoff round and are favorites. They have been in this position quite a few times, but many experts are picking the Chargers in this Game. Tom Brady and the offense was solid on the season, but the defense only ranked 21st. while they only GAve up 15 points in winning their last two Games they faced the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, who struggled to put up points this season.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 4-point home favorite with a total of 45.5.
This season the Chargers are 10-7 ATS with an O/U record of 8-9 and the Patriots are 7-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 8-8.
These teams met last season in New England where the Patriots beat the Chargers 21-13.
The Patriots are 4-0 in their last Four Games facing the Chargers.
In their 23-17 road win over the Ravens last week they only GAined 243 yards, but the held the Ravens to 229 yards, forced three turnovers, and only committed one. The Bolts totally shut down the Ravens and QB LAmar Jackson until the 4th quarter where they allowed 14 points.
Rivers only had 160 passing yards in the Baltimore win and did not have a TD, but was also not picked off. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are his two WR’s, but only combined for 79 receiving yards last week. The Chargers only rushed for 89 yards against Baltimore’s top-ranked defense with Melvin Gordon leading the team with 40 rushing yards and he only averaged 2.4 yards per carry. He was forced out of the last Game with a knee injury and while he should go in this one he is not 100%.
Rivers and company will be facing a Pats’ D that ranks 22nd in the league against the pass and 11th against the run.
New England only ranked tied for 21st in the league in sacks and face a solid Chargers’; offensive line that only GAve up one sack in the win over the Ravens.
Ho hum, Tom Brady is at it again in the playoffs with a good WR corps with Julian Edelman and James White and TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk was not featured much last in the season, as in Four of his last five Games he did not have more than 26 receiving yards. Rookie Sony Michel leads the team in the backfield and after rushing for 116 yards in the 2nd to last Game of the season he only rushed for 50 in the season finale averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
The Chargers’ defense is a balanced one ranking 9th in the league in both pass and run defense. They have the 10th most sacks in the league and getting to Brady will be key for them in this playoff Game.
Chargers ATS Trends
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record
5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games
5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road Games
Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 Games
Patriots ATS Trends
5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff home Games
38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 home Games
18-8 ATS in their last 26 Games facing a team with a winning record
Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 Games
Jason’s Pick: While many experts are picking the Chargers in an upset in this one I am not one of them. Brady is Brady in the playoffs and while the Pats are not the dominating team they have been in the last several seasons, but with Brady under center and Belickick on the sidelines at home they will get the W. The Game will be pretty close, but New England will win and cover the spread and head to another AFC title Game.
Bettorsworld Pick – So, I read an article this week that suggested there where “chinks in the armor” of the mighty Pats. Proof of that statement was that the Patriots, for the first time since 2009 did NOT win 12 Games. Yeah, ok. So they won 11 Games. Can you imagine that kind of talk about any other NFL team?
What the Patriots, Brady, Belichick and an assorted cast of characters have done over the years is simply one of the greatest feats in the history of sports, period. Love them or hate them, there is no denying it. Furthermore, the 2018-2019 version of the New England Patriots is a damn good football team.
The Pats did have some problems on the road this year where they were 3-5. However, they don’t have to worry about that this week. They are home, where they are 8-0, knocking off the likes of the Colts and Chiefs along the way.
In fact, when we look at the Patriots home yards per point numbers, we see a fantastic 13.1 on offense and 19.2 on defense. That 19.2 is good for #2 in the NFL. Imagine that, the Patriots #2 in the league in a very important defensive category! Proving there’s more to this team than an aging Tom Brady and that football really is a TEAM sport!
Make no mistake about it. The Chargers are up against it this week. This is no easy task. The Pats won’t go quietly, if they go at all. If this Game isn’t in doubt as we start the 4th quarter, I, for one, would be truly shocked.
But, with all of that said, the San Diego, uh, excuse me, the Los Angeles Chargers may very well have what it takes to pull off the upset and advaNCe to the AFC Championship Game. We mentioned when the playoffs beGAn that if there was a team that could go on the road and make a run, it’s these Chargers.
There’s no point in going over all of the road accomplishments of the Chargers this year. 8-1 is all you need to know.
There’s no pressure on Tom Brady this week. He has nothing left to prove. This Game, for the Chargers, lies squarely on the shoulders of Philip Rivers, who has everything left to prove. The Rivers story remains a work in progress and he needs this Game in the worst way.
Our model has the Patriots winning by a score of 24-23. That’s using data from the entire season. However, when we take data from only the last 7 Games, the model has the Chargers on top by a score of 24-16. In either scenario, from a betting standpoint, the Chargers at +4 gets the money.
This one should be one of the better Games this weekend. As is the case in any close Game, it will likely come down to a key play/mistake or two.
We are going to back the Chargers in this one, but NOT because the Patriots have a few “chinks in the armor”. We are backing the Chargers because THEY have what it takes to go on the road and beat a damn good football team in a Divisional playoff Game. Rivers has been here before (literally, here in New England, AFC Championship) and this time there will be no torn ACL.
It’s also worth noting that the UNDER 47.5 may be worth a look as well. The Pats home defense and the way the Chargers defense has stepped up may just produce a Game with a final in the 30’s. Very much like the 2007 AFC Championship, with a 21-12 final. Chargers +4