Dolphins vs. Patriots – ATS Analysis and Free Pick – 12/29/19

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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots – Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis

Miami Dolphins (4-11 8-7 ATS) at New England Patriots (12-3 8-6-1 ATS)

In the last game of the regular season, the Dolphins head north to take on the New England Patriots as a 15.5-point underdog. The total for this AFC East matchup is sitting at 45.

The public has backed the Pats in this one, as they opened as a 16.5-point favorite and as of Tuesday are a 15.5-point favorite.

The Pats can lock down the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, and get a coveted first-round bye, with a win in this game or a Kansas City Chiefs loss. The Chiefs loss is not likely with them at home facing the L.A. Chargers, so New England has some pressure on them.

The Patriots are coming off an AFC East clinching 24-17 win over the Buffalo Bills. They have won two in a row after losing two in a row and in the 2nd game of the season in Miami they throttled the Dolphins in a 43-0 win.

Miami snapped their two-game skid in their last game in a 38-35 shootout OT win over the Cincinnati Bengals. As bad as they have been they played decent in the 2nd half of the season. Still, they need QB help and they are now around the 4th or 5th pick in the next draft.

The Patriots have covered the spread in their last seven home games against the Dolphins.

Surviving Late Collapse

In their win over the Bengals in OT in their last game, the Dolphins held on even though they were outscored 23-7 in the 4th quarter.

Miami racked up over 500 total yards in the game and most of them coming from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who passed for 419 yards with four TD and one INT. The team rushed for only 96 yards and only rushed for 42 yards in the Week 2 loss to the Patriots.

In the loss to the Patriots in Week 2 there was not much Fitz Magic with him going for no TD and three INT before getting benched.

The Miami rushing offense has been a no-show this season and ranks dead last in the league in rushing yards per game. I mean, Fitzpatrick leads the team with 228 rushing yards and their 2nd leading rusher is Mark Walton, who was cut a few weeks back because of a domestic violence issue.

New England shut out Miami in the first game facing them this season and they rank 2nd in the league in pass defense and 7th in run defense.

Big Pats’ Stop

In their win over the Bills in their last game, Buffalo had a first and goal from the eight-yard line with less than a minute left but New England kept them out of the end-zone to ice the win. The Pats outgained the Bills 414 yards to 268 yards and had the game’s only, but they outscored the Bills 11-0 in the 4th quarter.

Tom Brady passed for 271 yards with a TD and no INT, Sony Michel rushed for 96 yards, and Rex Burkhead only rushed for 20 yards but had four receptions for 77 yards.

The Patriots will face a Miami defense that ranks 28th in the league in pass defense and 27th in run defense.

Our Prediction

The Patriots have covered the spread in their last seven home games against the Dolphins and in five of their last seven games facing them overall.

However, with all the trends and the fact the Pats shut out the Dolphins in Week 2 the Fish are still the pick in this game. There will not be Fitz Magic to a win, but he will play well even facing New England’s top-ranked defense. The Patriots will win this game and win handily but the Dolphins will cover the big spread.

PICK: Dolphins +15.5