Baltimore Ravens (6-4 4-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0 8-2 ATS)
The Ravens have lost two in a row and three of their last four games and in the late Thanksgiving game head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, who are the lone unbeaten team in the NFL. The hometown Steelers are a 3.5-point betting favorite in this AFC North matchup with a total of 46.
The public has, not surprisingly, backed the Steelers in this game, as they opened as a 2.5-point favorite and as of Monday are a 3.5-point favorite.
Baltimore’s slide began with a 28-24 home loss to the Steelers a few weeks back. The Ravens still are ranked third in the league in scoring defense (19.5 ppg), but in the three losses in their last four games they have given up an average of 27 ppg.
Pittsburgh has won two in a row by a combined score of 63-13 and their scoring defense is the top-ranked unit in the league only giving up an average of 17.4 ppg.
In their win over the Ravens a few weeks back the Steelers were outgained 457 yards to 221 yards but forced four turnovers and outscored Baltimore 21-7 in the second half.
The Ravens are in third place in the AFC North and after this game have an easy schedule but if they lose will still have to bank on a wild card to make the post-season.
Not Coming Through in Clutch
In the Ravens’ last game, they lost to the Tennessee Titans 30-24 in OT where they gave up an 11-point second-half lead and lost giving up a 29-yard TD run.
Baltimore held Derrick Henry to only 42 rushing yards through three quarters but allowed him to gallop for 92 yards in the fourth quarter and OT.
Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has four picks in his last four games and has also not rushed for over 65 yards in the last four games. He had two INT in the earlier loss to the Steelers and he has to avoid the turnover and spurn the run game.
J.K. Dobbins rushed for 70 yards in the loss to Tennessee and a season-high 113 yards in the loss to Pittsburgh. Baltimore has to hold onto the rock and run the ball but easier said than done against a great Pittsburgh D that is strong against the run and the pass and has forced 12 turnovers in the last four games.
Dominating the Minnow
The Steelers stayed perfect on the season in their last game with a dominating 27-3 win over the one-win Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers outgained the Jags 373 yards to 206 yards and forced four turnovers.
Big Ben has played well back under center and the run game has been decent, at best, but the turnovers and the D are the reasons the team is undefeated. Pittsburgh was dominated in yardage in the win over the Ravens this season but came up with four turnovers.
Baltimore needs to make the Steelers work and not give them the ball. If they can do that they should be able to snap their skid with the run game they have.
Prediction
The Ravens have failed to cover in two in a row and four of their last five games. The Steelers have covered the spread in two straight and in seven of their last eight games.
Trends be damned I am taking the Ravens and the points in this one. Jackson and Baltimore will avoid the turnover in this game, and they will run the ball well. This game will be a statement one for Baltimore, as they will not only cover but I think they will get the W and hand the Steelers their first loss of the season.
PICK: Ravens +3.5