Cleveland Browns (9-4 5-8 ATS) at New York Giants (5-8 8-5 ATS)
In a big non-conference game for both teams in primetime the Giants host the Browns in a non-conference affair. The Browns are the 6-point road favorites with a total of 43.5.
The public has backed the Browns in this one, as they opened as a 3-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 5-point favorite.
The Browns had their four-game win streak snapped in their last game with a 47-42 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. They are in the fifth spot in the AFC and it will be hard for them to catch the Steelers in the AFC North trailing them by two games even though they face them in the season finale.
The Giants also had their four-game win streak snapped in their last game with a 26-7 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. The loss was a costly one, as they now trail the Washington Football Team by one game in the NFC East. They hold the tiebreaker with Washington beating them twice but have issues at the QB position.
Daniel Jones played with an injured hamstring in the loss to Arizona and struggled, mightily, because of it. He has been limited in practice this week and if he cannot go Colt McCoy will get the starting nod.
The Giants’ defense had only given up an average of 16.5 ppg in their four-game win streak before giving up 26 points in the last game. The team needs to play good D in this game, as their offense is the third-lowest scoring unit in the league (18.3 ppg). On top of that, they will face a Cleveland team that has scored 41 points and 42 points, respectively, in their last two games.
The Browns have only covered the spread once in their last five games as a favorite.
Tough Loss
In the Browns’ loss to the Ravens, which many have called the best game of the season, they had the offense churning but were torched on the ground and gave up a game-winning 55-yard field goal.
The Browns racked up 493 yards in the loss to the Ravens but gave up 231 yards and had the game’s only turnover.
Baker Mayfield has passed for at least 334 yards in each of his last two games with six TD and one INT. He has the league’s ninth-ranked QBR and has not taken a sack in the last two games.
Nick Chubb has the fifth-most rushing yards in the league and after rushing for over 100 yards in five of six games he has 80 yards and 82 yards, respectively, in the last two games. He will be facing a New York run defense that has been solid on the season but gave up 159 yards on the ground in their last game.
Nothing Going On Offense
The Giants’ offense was stymied in their last game where they only had 159 total yards in the 26-7 loss to the Cardinals. They only rushed for 78 yards and the hobbled Jones only passed for 127 yards.
Jones is a mobile QB that is the second leading rusher for the Giants and if he plays as he did in the last game New York will lose again. Colt McCoy may get the call and in limited action, this season has 154 yards with a TD and an INT.
Wayne Gallman leads the Giants with 561 rushing yards and after totaling 229 yards in two games he had 57 yards in the loss to the Cardinals. It is key he runs the ball well against a Browns’ run D that was shredded in their last game and to do that New York cannot get down big early.
Prediction
The Browns are only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games but the Giants are only 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 home games.
I think the Browns will continue their solid play on the offensive side of the ball in this game. Mayfield and company will get it done while the same cannot be said about the Giants’ offense. They will struggle to pick up yards whoever is under center. Take the Browns in this one even giving five points, as they will get back in the W column and send the G-Men to their second straight loss.
PICK: Browns -6