Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders  – Week 14 NFL Free Pick – 12/13/20

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Indianapolis Colts (8-4 7-5 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-5 7-5 ATS)

The Indianapolis Colts head to Sin City to face the Las Vegas Raiders in an AFC matchup with major playoff implications. The Colts are a 3-point road favorite with the total sitting at 51.5.

While the total has gone down half a point since opening the spread has not changed since opening.

If the season ended today the Colts would be a Wild Card and get the seventh and last playoff spot. However, they only have a one-game lead over the Raiders, who can pass Indy with a home win this Sunday.

The Raiders snapped their two-game skid in their last game with a miracle 31-28 win over the Jets with a long TD pass in the last seconds. The team was throttled by a sub .500 Atlanta team in the game before that and in their last three games they have given up an average of 35 ppg.

The Colts have won three of their last four games and are at 8-4 in the AFC South along with the Tennessee Titans. They split the two games facing the Titans but are 2-2 in division play while Tennessee is 3-1, so the Titans have the tiebreaker.

Indy has been solid on both sides of the ball on the season and they got over a bad and costly loss to Tennessee with a 26-20 win over the Houston Texans in their last game.

These teams met early last season where the Raiders were at home and beat the Colts 31-24.

The road team has covered the spread in the last five games between these AFC teams.

Little Luck with Solid D Leads to Win

In the Colts’ 26-20 win over the Texans in their last game, Indy shut them out in the second half and pounced a fumble on their 2-yard line with 90 seconds left to preserve the win.

Phillip Rivers had been picked off in two straight games but in the Houston, game passed for 285 yards with two TD with no INT. He has had a pretty good first season with the Colts and while he only ranks 20th in the league in QBR six of his nine INT on the season came in the first six games.

Rookie Jonathan Taylor has given the Colts a shot in the arm as of late with two straight games with at least 90 rushing yards. He will be facing a Las Vegas run defense that was lit up in the win over the Jets giving up 206 rushing yards.

Thank the Opposing Coach

In the Raiders’ wild win over the Jets in the last game, they have to thank New York defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who called a blitz bringing seven with only five seconds left opening up the secondary for the game-winning TD. Oh yeah, the bonehead call from Williams got him fired after the game.

Derek Carr had a big game against the Jets with 381 passing yards with three TD and no INT. he has eight TD and two INT in his last five games and TE Darren Waller was huge in the New York game with 200 receiving yards.

Josh Jacobs missed the game with New York and the Raiders’ leading rusher is likely out against the Colts and that is a big blow. He ranks sixth in the league in rushing yards and in the win over the Jets Devontae Booker led the team with 50 rushing yards but only averaged 3.1 yards per carry.


Not only are the Colts 4-1 ATS in their last five road games but are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite. The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last seven games after a win.

Man, I like the Raiders I am not going to lie but not giving them much of a chance in this game. They gave up a lot of points in two straight losses then needed a miracle play to beat the winless Jets. Indy has the eyes on the prize of a playoff berth and is a solid all-around team. The Colts will get the win and cover putting a hurt on the Raiders’ playoff hopes.

 PICK: Colts -3