Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens – Divisional Playoffs NFL Betting Analysis
Tennessee Titans (10-7 9-7-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (14-2 10-6 ATS)
The Titans are on the road for a 2nd straight week in the playoffs and are big 10-point underdogs facing the Baltimore Ravens, who have won 12 straight games. The total for this AFC playoff matchup sits at 47.
As of Wednesday, the spread for this game has not changed while the total has gone from 48.5 to 47.
Tennessee beat the New England Patriots last week where they shut out New England in the 2nd half and RB Derrick Henry had a huge game on the ground. They did not face the Ravens this season where they are 6-3 on the road.
The Ravens are the Super Bowl betting favorites and with good reason. Not only have they won 12 in a row, but Lamar Jackson WILL be the league MVP and he leads an offense that ranks first in the NFL in both points per game and rushing yards per game. Baltimore is 7-1 at home this season and the lone loss in their house was way back in Week 3.
The Big question for Tennessee is can they stop the run? They rank 12th in the league in run defense and in their last two games they have given up 98 and 109 rushing yards respectively. However, they face a Ravens’ run game that is averaging 206 rushing yards per game.
The Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games facing the Titans.
Run the Rock
In the Titans win over the Patriots in the Wild Card round, Derrick Henry was huge rushing for 182 yards and a TD and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. He is the big gun for Tennessee and led the league this season in rushing yards and averaged over five yards per carry.
Tennessee’s defense also needs to play like they did last week where they held Tom Brady and the Pats scoreless in the 2nd half. They only had 272 total yards in the game, New England had 307, but turnovers were key, as they only committed one and forced two including a late INT of Brady to ice the game.
Ryan Tannehill had a great season in a resurgent one and he did not have to do much at all in the win over the Pats passing for only 72 yards with a TD and an INT. He has had some big games this season but the best way for Tennessee to win is to feed the rock early and often to Henry.
Baltimore’s defense is a solid and balanced one ranking 5th in the NFL against the run and 6th against the pass.
The Rust Factor
The Ravens had a bye last week and in their season finale several key starters, including Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram did not play. Hard to believe they will come out flat with Jackson at the helm, but he and those aforementioned starters have not seen action since December 22nd.
Jackson (1,206 rushing yards) and Ingram (1,018 rushing yards) are the players the Titans have to contain, which is a tall order to say the least. While Baltimore only ranked 27th in the league in passing yards per game Jackson had 36 TD and only five picks and passed for 3,127 yards.
Jackson has some legit targets led by TE Mark Andrews (852 yards 10 TD) and will face the weakness of the Titans’ defense, which is their pass defense that only ranks 24th in the league.
While the Titans have covered the spread in their last four road games the Ravens have covered in four of their last five home games.
The Ravens are double-digit favorites in this game, and they will win and advance to the AFC Championship Game. However, the Titans will keep this game pretty close behind a strong game from Henry, who has totaled 393 rushing yards in his last two games. Tennessee will give Baltimore a run for their money and they will cover the double-digit spread.
PICK: Titans +10
Bettorsworld’s Pick – We’re going to go against Jason here…….
The Titans offense managed to score just 14 points against the Patriots last week with Tannehill throwing for just 72 yards.
Derrick Henry is a great back but we don’t see him having the same success in Baltimore as he did last week.
The Ravens are going to get their points which means the rest of the Titans offense is going to have to produce here.
In a battle between Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill, we’ll side with Jackson to continue his phenomenal season and extend a margin here.
Our model agrees, predicting a Ravens win by a couple of touchdowns.