In, by far, the most anticipated game of Week 13 the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of last season’s NFC title game.
Even at home and with a better record the Eagles are the underdog in this game posted at +2.5 with a total of 47.5. The public has been backing San Fran in this big NFC clash, as they opened as a 2-point favorite and as of Thursday are a 2.5-point favorite.
The 8-3 49ers have won three in a row after a three-game skid and in their last game on Thanksgiving beat the Seattle Seahawks 31-13. They easily covered the spread as a 7-point favorite and after failing to cover in three in a row have done so in two of the last three games.
The Eagles are an NFL best 10-1 and they won their fifth in a row in their last game in a 37-34 OT home win over the Buffalo Bills. The game was a Pick with Philly a 3-point favorite and in their last four games they are 2-0-2 ATS.
On the season the 49ers are 6-5 ATS with an O/U record of 5-5-1 and the Eagles are 6-2-3 ATS with an O/U record of 6-5.
Killing it Early
In their turkey day win over the Seahawks the 49ers got off to a great start outscoring them 24-3 in the first half. They outgained Seattle 377 yards to 220 yards, only gave up 88 rushing yards, and forced two turnovers.
In the Seattle win Brock Purdy passed for 208 yards with a TD and a pick, Christian McCaffrey rushed for 114 yards and a score, and Debo Samuel led the way with 79 receiving yards.
San Fran is balanced ranking tied for third in scoring (28.2 ppg) and first in opponents’ ppg (15.5 ppg) and ranks eighth in passing yards per game and seventh in rushing yards per game.
Purdy (2,871 yards 19 TD 6 INT) ranks first in the NFL in QBR and has seven TD and only one INT over the last three games. He was knocked out of the NFC title last game in the loss to the Eagles. McCaffery (939 yards 11 TD) leads the league in rushing yards, by a wide margin, and has at least 95 rushing yards in two of the last three games.
The 49ers will be facing a Philly D that only ranks 20th in the league in points against (22.4 ppg), 29th against the pass, and third against the run.
Hurts Gets it Done
In the OT win over the Bills in their last game the Eagles gave up a field goal on the first possession of overtime but on the next possession Jalen Hurts rushed for the game-winning TD. The Eagles won despite giving up 505 yards and they had more turnovers (2-1) but rushed for 185 yards averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
In the Buffalo win Hurts passed for 200 yards with three TD and one INT and rushed for 65 yards with two TD. D’Andre Swift led the way with 80 rushing yards and DeVonta Smith had 106 receiving yards and a TD.
On the season the Eagles are tied for third in scoring (28.2 ppg) and rank 13th in passing yards per game and eighth in rushing yards per game.
Hurts (2,697 yards 18 TD 10 INT) ranks sixth in the league in QBR and ranks second on the Eagles with 410 rushing yards.
One big issue in this game is star WR A.J. Brown (1,050 yards 7 TD), who ranks fourth in the league in receiving yards, is listed as questionable for this game in the last two games only has six catches for 45 yards.
Hurts and company have a tall task facing San Fran’s top ranked scoring defense, which ranks 12th against the pass and second against the run.
Betting Trends
The 49ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record.
The 49ers have an Under record of 10-4-1 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning home record.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.
The Eagles are 3-0-2 ATS in their last five games.
The Eagles have an Over record of 5-1 in their last six games.