The Bills are coming off a surprising loss and in primetime on Thursday night host a Buccaneers’ team that has lost two in a row.
The Bills are a 7.5-point favorite in this non-conference game with the total sitting at 42.5. In the early going the public has been betting the Bucs, as they opened as an 8-point underdog and are 7.5-point dog as of Tuesday.
In their last game the Bucs (3-3) were at home and lost to the Atlanta Falcons 16-13. Tampa failed to cover as a 3-point favorite and they have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games including their last two.
The Bills (4-3) were on the road in their last game losing to the New England Patriots 29-25. Buffalo did not cover as an 8.5-point favorite and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games.
Scoring Helps
The Bucs only rank tied for 26th in the league averaging 17.2 ppg and in their last two games have only totaled 19 points. In the loss to the Falcons, they were outgained 401 yards to 329 yards, only rushed for 73 yards and while they forced three turnovers, they committed two.
In the Atlanta loss, Baker Mayfield passed for 275 yards with a TD and INT, Rachaad White led the way with only 34 rushing yards on 12 carries, and Mike Evans had 82 receiving yards and a TD.
Tampa Bay ranks a respectable 15th in the league in passing yards per game but second to last in rushing yards per game.
Mayfield (1,363 yards 8 TD 4 INT) ranks 14th in the league in QBR and since the last Bucs win, where he passed for three TD, he only has one TD and two picks in the last two games.
Baker and company will be facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 11th in the league against the pass and 23rd against the run.
Offense Has Slowed Down
After averaging 41 ppg in three games in a row the Bills’ offense has slowed down averaging 19.7 ppg over the last three games.
In the loss to the Patriots the Bills were outgained 364 yards to 339 yards, had two turnovers, and only scored three points in the first half. Josh Allen passed for 265 yards with two TD and an INT, James Cook rushed for 56 yards, and Dalton Kinkaid and Stefon Diggs combined for 133 receiving yards and a score.
You would think by looking at their stats the Bills would be better than their 4-3 record. They rank third in the league in scoring, fifth in defensive scoring, sixth in passing yards per game, and 14th in rushing yards per game.
Allen (1,841 yards 15 TD 7 INT) has the third highest QBR but in each of the last three games has two TD and a pick. Diggs (678 yards 6 TD) has the fourth most receiving yards in the league and had four straight games with 100+ yards before only having 56 in the last game.
Allen may have a big game facing a Tampa pass defense that only ranks 27th in the league. The Bucs rank 10th in run defense.
Betting Trends
The Bucs are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
The Bills are 1-1-4 ATS in their last six games facing the Bucs.