Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins – Week 18 NFL Pick

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dolphins at bills pick
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This game is for all the marbles, as the winner of the Dolphins vs. Bills season finale will win the AFC East title.

The Dolphins are at home but oddsmakers still have them as a 3-point underdog with a total of 49.5. The public has backed the Bills, as they opened as a 2.5-point favorite but are a 3-point favorite as of Thursday.

The Bills (10-6) won their fourth in a row in their last game in a 27-21 home win over the New England Patriots. They failed to cover as a 13.5-point favorite and they have not covered the spread in their last two games.

The Dolphins (11-5) are coming off an embarrassing 56-19 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens and they had won their previous two games. They came nowhere near covering the spread as a 3-point underdog and they had covered in their previous two games.

On the season the Bills are 10-5 ATS with an O/U record of 8-7 and the Dolphins 10-6 ATS with an O/U record of 9-7.

Earlier this season in Buffalo the Bills beat the Dolphins 48-20.

Good Thing for the Turnovers

In their last game the Bills were not overly impressive and were only 2-5 in the Red Zone but they forced four turnovers and only had one in the win over the Patriots. They were outgained (294 yards to 281 yards) and allowed the Pats to go 2-2 in the Red Zone.

In the last game Josh Allen passed for 169 yards with no TD and a pick but rushed for 44 yards with two TD. James Cook led the way with 48 rushing yards, but only averaged three yards per carry, and TE Dalton Kincaid had 87 receiving yards.

On the season the Bills rank sixth in the league in scoring (26.9 ppg), 10th in passing yards per game, and seventh in rushing yards per game.

Allen (3,947 yards 27 TD 16 INT) ranks third in the league in QBR but only had three TD to go with three picks over the last four games. Cook (1,086 yards 2 TD) has 118 rushing over the last two games where he failed to average over 3.5 yards per carry. Lead WR Stefon Diggs (1,096 yards 8 TD) has over 1,000 receiving yards for the sixth straight season, but he has failed to get over 29 yards in three of the last four games.

Allen and company will face a Miami defense that was torched last week and ranks tied for 21st in points against (23.1 ppg), 12th against the pass, and seventh against the run.

Get Over It

The Dolphins need to get over the bad 56-19 loss to the Ravens last week and move towards this huge game with Buffalo where the division title is on the line.

In the loss to the Ravens the Dolphins were outgained 491 yards to 375 yards and had three turnovers while forcing one. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 237 yards with two TD and two INT, De’Von Achane rushed for 107 yards, and Tyreek Hill led the way with 76 receiving yards.

On the season the Dolphins are the highest scoring team and rank first in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game.

Tua (4,451 yards 18 TD 12 INT) is out of the MVP race ranking 13th in QBR and only has four TD over the last four games. Lead RB Raheem Mostert (1,102 yards 18 TD) missed the last game and is questionable to face the Bills. Hill (1,717 yards 12 TD) still leads the NFL in receiving yards and is also listed as questionable with a minor injury and for personal reasons, as his house was recently in a big fire.

The Dolphins’ offense will face a Bills’ defense that ranks fourth in the league in points against (18.6 ppg), seventh against the pass, and 15th against the run.

Betting Trends

The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

The Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.

The Bills have an Under record of 11-4 in their last 15 road games.

The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games facing a team with a winning record.

The Dolphins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

The Dolphins have an Under record of 11-5 in their last 16 road games.

Here’s the way our model sees the game. The 1st prediction uses full season data, the 2nd uses the last 4 games and the 3rd uses the last 7.  

Buffalo                   -3.0          26           
Miami                     50.5          26
  
Buffalo                   -3.0          21           
Miami                     50.5          26
  
Buffalo                   -3.0          23           
Miami                     50.5          25