49ers at Rams Thursday Night Football Pick: Los Angeles Poised to Dominate

Thursday, October 2, 2025 | SoFi Stadium
Spread: Rams -7 | Total: 46.5

Rams Rolling While 49ers Struggle to Find Offensive Rhythm

The Los Angeles Rams have established themselves as one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams through the first month of the season, sitting at 3-1 with their only blemish coming on a blocked field goal in Philadelphia. The San Francisco 49ers arrive at SoFi Stadium with the same 3-1 record, but their path has been far less impressive after suffering an embarrassing home defeat to Jacksonville last week.

When comparing these identical records, context matters. The Rams’ 3-1 mark carries far more weight than San Francisco’s 3-1 showing, particularly when examining how each team has performed on both sides of the ball. If not for that blocked kick in Philly, Los Angeles would be sitting pretty at 4-0.

The Numbers Tell a Clear Story

The yards per play differential is the very first stat we look at each week when w esize up the NFL card. Los Angeles ranks first in the entire league with a +1.5 differential, while San Francisco checks in at fifth with +1.0.

Alarming for San Francisco backers: the 49ers offense ranks 30th in yards per point at 18.4, ahead of only Atlanta and Cleveland. They’ve managed just 16, 17, 21, and 26 points through four games, with that 26-point output coming against the lowly Saints. That’s not the profile of a team built to trade punches with a Rams squad that’s had zero trouble finding the endzone.

The turnover battle further tilts this matchup toward Los Angeles. The Rams sit at +3 in turnover margin while the 49ers are underwater at -5—an eight-turnover swing that speaks volumes about ball security and opportunistic defense.

Personnel and Matchup Advantages

Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack have been clicking on all cylinders, creating explosive plays downfield while maintaining efficiency in the short game. The offensive line has provided adequate protection, allowing Stafford to operate the play-action game that remains Sean McVay’s bread and butter.

San Francisco’s defense, while talented on paper, has shown vulnerabilities against efficient passing attacks. The 49ers have struggled to generate consistent pressure without compromising their coverage, and Los Angeles excels at exploiting exactly those situations.

The 49ers’ offensive line issues have been well-documented, and they’ll face a Rams defensive front that’s been generating pressure at an impressive rate. When San Francisco’s offense gets behind the chains, their already-anemic scoring production becomes even more limited. They’ll need significantly more offensive firepower to keep pace with the Rams.

Trends and Historical Context

San Francisco enters this divisional battle having failed to cover in recent road contests, while Los Angeles has been money at home. The Rams are 3-1 against the spread this season, demonstrating they’re not only winning but covering numbers. The 49ers, meanwhile, have underperformed against expectations despite their record.

Thursday night games historically favor the home team, particularly when that home team has established offensive rhythm and defensive momentum. The short week amplifies any existing advantages, and the Rams hold multiple edges here.

The Betting Angle

The Rams make an excellent teaser option, bringing them down to -1, but the straight play offers solid value as well.

With the total at 46.5, the under has some appeal given San Francisco’s offensive limitations, but Los Angeles’ ability to score could push this over by themselves if they get out to an early lead and force the 49ers into a one-dimensional attack.

The Bottom Line

The Rams are the clear side in this Thursday night showdown. They’re more efficient on both sides of the ball, they’re playing at home under the lights, and they’re facing a 49ers team that simply cannot score enough points to keep pace.

San Francisco needs to find offensive solutions quickly, but a short week in a hostile road environment isn’t the spot for a breakout performance. The Rams should control this game from start to finish.

The Pick: Rams -7