Bengals at Browns Week 1: The Case for Under 47.5 and Home Underdog Value

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025 – 1:00 PM ET
Spread: Bengals -5 (down from -6) MyBookie
Total: 47.5
Moneyline: Browns +188, Bengals -225

The Battle of Ohio kicks off the 2025 NFL season with familiar AFC North rivals meeting at Huntington Bank Field, but this isn’t your typical divisional showdown. Both teams missed the playoffs last season, yet the betting market shows clear favoritism toward Cincinnati despite some compelling reasons to consider the other side.

The Total Play: Under 47.5 Is Golden

The strongest wager for Week 1 may be on the total, where over the last three seasons, the total points in Bengals Week 1 games has been 43, 27, and 26 points, all hitting the under. This trend becomes even more pronounced when these specific teams meet, as since 2022, every Bengals-Browns game has gone under this total (6/6).

The historical context is overwhelming. Week 1 games traditionally feature conservative game-planning, rust from extended layoffs, and teams feeling out their identity. When you factor in that Joe Burrow has struggled with early-season performances and the Bengals face a new Browns defense coordinated by different personnel, the path to the under becomes even clearer.

Cleveland’s Undervalued Position

While the Browns endured a disastrous 3-14 campaign last season, there are several factors suggesting they’re being overvalued as home underdogs. The Browns were listed at +205 on the moneyline two weeks ago, but as of now, anyone wagering at plus money will see a smaller return at +188 on FanDuel, indicating some sharp money has moved toward Cleveland.

The key difference this year is stability at quarterback. With 18-year veteran Joe Flacco under center, Cleveland players said they don’t care about the critics who are picking them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Flacco brings a calm presence that was sorely lacking during last season’s quarterback carousel, and Flacco said he physically feels better at 40-years-old in his second stint in Cleveland, now with a full offseason under his belt.

Cincinnati’s Question Marks

Despite being road favorites, the Bengals carry their own concerns. The Bengals have lost three consecutive Week 1 matchups, including a 24-3 loss to the Browns on a rainy day at Huntington Bank Field in 2023. This pattern of slow starts has become a recurring theme for Joe Burrow and company.

The Bengals also face uncertainty on defense under new coordinator Al Gordon. There’s not really that much film to watch on the Cincinnati Bengals defense. You just study the little bit of preseason film, combine it with some from last year, and go from there, noted Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy.

Key Personnel and Matchups

The Browns’ depth chart reveals interesting developments, particularly in the backfield where Jerome Ford leads a running game that just days before their Week 1 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, waived running back Pierre Strong Jr. from the injured reserve. This move creates questions about depth but also suggests confidence in their current personnel.

Cleveland’s defensive strength remains Myles Garrett, whom Burrow acknowledged as a game-changing force: “He can win the game if you let him. You have to, number one, game plan around him, number two, as a quarterback, you have to be aware of where he is at all times”.

The Betting Recommendation

Primary Play: Under 47.5 (-110)
The historical trends are too strong to ignore. Six straight unders in this matchup, combined with Burrow’s Week 1 struggles and both teams working through early-season adjustments, point toward a lower-scoring affair.

Value Play: Browns +5 (-110)
Home underdogs in divisional matchups often provide value, especially when the underdog has shown recent line movement in their favor. Cleveland’s veteran quarterback stability and motivation to prove doubters wrong creates an appealing spot at this number. Note that sharp bettors grabbed the +6

Lean: Browns ML +188
For the more adventurous, the moneyline offers significant value. Cleveland opens as underdogs in Week 1 Battle of Ohio, but remember how that turned out two years ago when they dominated Cincinnati in a similar spot.

Week 1 always brings surprises, and the combination of Cincinnati’s historical slow starts, Cleveland’s improved stability, and the consistent under trend in this matchup creates multiple angles for savvy bettors to exploit. The market may be underestimating the Browns’ resolve and overestimating the Bengals’ immediate readiness for another playoff push.