Buccaneers (+6) at Lions: Take the Points with Tampa Bay

Monday, October 20, 2025 | Ford Field | Detroit, MI
Betting Line: Lions -5.5 to -6 | Total: 52.5

The 5-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Detroit as road underdogs against the 4-2 Lions in what promises to be a high-scoring NFC showdown. While the Lions look to rebound from their 30-17 loss to Kansas City last week, we’re backing the Buccaneers to keep this one close and potentially pull off the outright upset.

The Case for Tampa Bay +6

When examining strength of schedule, the Buccaneers have clearly faced and defeated superior competition. Tampa Bay has notched impressive wins against playoff-caliber teams including the Falcons, Texans, Seahawks, and 49ers. Meanwhile, Detroit’s wins have come against the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Bears – a less impressive quartet. More telling is that the Lions have dropped both games against their toughest opponents this season, falling to Green Bay and Kansas City.

Both teams are remarkably similar from an efficiency standpoint, with nearly identical yards per play numbers. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks sixth in the league at 27.5 points per game, while their passing attack has been particularly explosive, sitting in the top ten in most offensive categories. Baker Mayfield has been exceptional through six weeks, throwing for 1,539 yards with 12 touchdowns against just one interception – maintaining a completion percentage north of 66%.

Detroit’s Defensive Concerns

The Lions enter this matchup with significant injuries in their secondary. With multiple cornerbacks and safeties either out or banged up, and Brian Branch suspended following his ejection against Kansas City, Detroit’s pass defense faces a serious test. This depleted unit will struggle to contain Tampa Bay’s deep receiving corps, which has seen four different players record 80-plus receiving yards in games this season.

While Detroit’s offense remains potent – averaging 31.8 points per game and ranking second in the league – they face a Tampa Bay defense that excels where it matters most. The Buccaneers boast one of the NFL’s best red zone defenses, which could prove crucial in limiting Detroit’s scoring opportunities. Tampa Bay allows just 3.7 yards per carry and ranks fifth in rushing defense at 88.5 yards per game, potentially neutralizing the Lions’ ground attack.

Historical Trends Favor the Road Team

Several key betting trends support taking the points with Tampa Bay:

• The Buccaneers have won three straight games as road underdogs this season
• The road team has covered the spread in seven of Tampa Bay’s last eight games
• The Buccaneers are 3-1 in their last four visits to Ford Field
• Tampa Bay has performed well in October games, with six straight going over the total

While the Lions have won nine consecutive home games following a loss, they’ve struggled to cover large spreads against quality NFC opponents, failing to cover in six of their last seven October home games against conference foes.

Monday Night Atmosphere

Playing on Monday Night Football at Ford Field presents challenges, but Tampa Bay has shown resilience in prime-time spots this season. The Buccaneers’ balanced offensive attack – combining Mayfield’s precise passing with a solid rushing game – travels well in hostile environments. With receivers creating separation against a compromised Detroit secondary, expect Tampa Bay to move the ball consistently.

Detroit’s home-field advantage is undeniable – they’ve averaged 34 points per game at Ford Field dating back to last season. However, laying nearly a touchdown against a 5-1 team with Tampa Bay’s offensive firepower seems excessive. The Lions haven’t lost consecutive games since October 2022, but that streak faces its toughest test against a Buccaneers squad that ranks among the NFC’s elite.

The Pick

With the line sitting at -5.5 to -6, we’re taking the Buccaneers plus the points. Tampa Bay’s superior resume, combined with Detroit’s defensive injuries and the inflated line, creates value on the road dog. The Buccaneers have the offensive weapons to exploit Detroit’s weakened secondary and a defense capable of making key stops in the red zone.

While both teams should put up points – making the over 52.5 an attractive secondary play – the smart money is on Tampa Bay to keep this game within a field goal. In what could be an NFC playoff preview, expect the Buccaneers to prove they belong among the conference’s best teams.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-110)
Secondary Play: Over 52.5 (-110)