Cardinals at Saints: Week 1 Road Favorites Present Value in New Orleans

Game Details:

• Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
• Spread: Cardinals -6.5  Betonline
• Total: 43.0/43.5  MyBookie
• Moneyline: Cardinals -270, Saints +240

The Case for Arizona Covering

The Cardinals enter 2025 with legitimate playoff aspirations following an 8-9 campaign that kept them in contention late into the season. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a disastrous 5-12 year that ended with four consecutive losses and extended their playoff drought to four seasons.

Quarterback Situation Heavily Favors Arizona

The most glaring disparity in this matchup lies under center. Kyler Murray returns as a proven veteran quarterback entering his seventh season, while New Orleans turns to Spencer Rattler, who went 0-6 as a starter last season with a concerning 57% completion rate. The Saints’ quarterback room of Rattler, Tyler Shough, and Jake Haener “inspires little confidence” according to expert analysis.

Murray’s recent track record against NFC opponents is impressive, recording 242+ passing yards in five of his last six games against NFC teams. He also demonstrated exceptional dual-threat ability last season as the only NFL player to accumulate 500 rushing yards on fewer than 100 attempts.

Historical Trends Support the Favorite

Several key trends favor Arizona in this spot:

• The Saints have lost 10 of their last 11 Week 1 home games against NFC West opponents
• The favorites have won each of the Saints’ last six games
• The Cardinals have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games in September
• The Saints have failed to cover in each of their last four games as underdogs against NFC West opponents

Defensive Upgrades for Arizona

The Cardinals aggressively addressed their defensive shortcomings during the offseason, bringing back veteran Calais Campbell to anchor the defensive line alongside fellow veteran Dalvin Tomlinson. They also added pass rusher Josh Sweat and drafted promising rookie Jordan Burch to bolster their pass rush.

This defensive improvement should create problems for a Saints offensive line protecting an inexperienced quarterback making his first NFL start in a hostile environment.

New Orleans’ Systemic Issues

The Saints underwent major changes following their disappointing 2024 campaign, installing Kellen Moore as head coach and Brandon Staley as defensive coordinator. While new leadership can sometimes provide an immediate boost, historically it takes time for new systems to gel, particularly with a rookie starting quarterback.

New Orleans ranked dead last in the NFL in second-half scoring (7.7 points per game) last season, indicating persistent issues with in-game adjustments and execution when trailing.

The Total: Under 43 Shows Value

The betting market has set this total at historically low levels for good reason. Multiple factors point toward a lower-scoring affair:

Weather and Venue Factors

• Eight of the Cardinals’ last nine road games in September have gone UNDER the total
• Three of the last four Sunday games at the Caesars Superdome have gone UNDER

Offensive Limitations With questions surrounding both offensive lines and New Orleans breaking in a new quarterback, this game projects to feature extended drives that eat clock without necessarily producing points. The Saints averaged just 16.3 points per game during the preseason while allowing 24.0 points.

Game Script Considerations If Arizona builds an early lead as expected, they’ll likely lean heavily on their ground game to control the clock, potentially limiting total possessions and scoring opportunities.

Best Betting Approach

Primary Recommendation: Cardinals -6.5

The talent disparity, particularly at quarterback, combined with favorable historical trends make Arizona an excellent play as road favorites. While laying points on the road in Week 1 carries inherent risk, the Saints’ systemic issues and personnel limitations create a scenario where the Cardinals should control this game from early on.

Secondary Play: Under 43

The ultra-low total reflects legitimate concerns about offensive production from both teams, but particularly New Orleans. With a rookie quarterback making his debut and both teams likely to emphasize ball control, this projects as a grind-it-out affair that stays well below the posted number.

Projected Final Score: Cardinals 27, Saints 16

Arizona’s superior talent and coaching stability should allow them to control this game throughout, covering the spread while keeping the total under the posted number. Murray and the Cardinals’ offensive weapons should find success against a Saints defense adjusting to new schemes, while New Orleans struggles to move the ball consistently against an improved Arizona defense.

The combination of Cardinals -6.5 and Under 43 offers excellent value in what should be a decisive season opener for both franchises heading in opposite directions.