Chiefs at Bills: Regular Season Showdown with Playoff Implications
Sunday, November 2, 2025 | 4:25 PM ET | Highmark Stadium
The marquee matchup of Week 9 features two AFC heavyweights renewing their rivalry when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Buffalo Bills. At Betonline, the Chiefs are laying 2 points with the total sitting at 52.5.
Tale of Two Starts
Buffalo raced to a 4-0 start this season before dropping consecutive games to Atlanta and New England. They got back on track last week with a dominant 40-9 win over Carolina, scoring on seven of their first eight possessions. The Bills currently sit at 5-1 in second place in the AFC East.
Kansas City’s path has been more turbulent. After stumbling to an 0-2 start, they reached .500 before dropping a Monday night matchup to Jacksonville, falling to 2-3. Since then, they’ve rattled off three impressive wins, including a 30-17 win over Detroit. The Chiefs are now 5-3, tied for second with the Chargers in the AFC West behind Denver.
History Lessons
Since 2021, these teams have met eight times – four in the regular season and four in the playoffs, including two AFC Championship games. The regular season tells one story: Buffalo has won all four matchups. The postseason tells another: Kansas City has won all four when it mattered most.
Buffalo enters this game as a rare home underdog, marking just the sixth time since 2020 they’ve gotten points at Highmark Stadium. In those previous five instances as home dogs, the Bills are 4-1 straight up and against the spread.
Matchup Analysis
Rest Advantage
Buffalo holds a significant rest edge in this matchup. The Bills had their Week 7 bye to prepare for this game, essentially giving them two weeks to scheme for Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off Monday Night Football in Week 8, giving them a short week to prepare.
Defensive Dynamics
The Chiefs defense has been stellar during their recent three-game winning streak, but they have a vulnerability against the run. Kansas City can mask this weakness by jumping to early leads and forcing opponents to abandon the ground game.
Buffalo ranks second in rushing offense DVOA and EPA per handoff, with the fourth-highest success rate per run. Behind an elite run-blocking offensive line, James Cook and the Bills ground game could set the tone early. Buffalo leads the NFL in time of possession at 33:14 per game, which could keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense on the sideline.
The Bills defense presents its own challenges, ranking 26th in defensive DVOA and struggling particularly against the run. They’ll be without defensive lineman Ed Oliver for this matchup. Kansas City rushed for 148 yards at 4.9 yards per attempt against Washington on Monday, showing they’ll take what defenses give them.
Offensive Philosophies
Kansas City’s passing game relies heavily on short throws and yards after catch, leading the NFL in YAC. This could be problematic against Buffalo, which allows the third-fewest YAC this season.
Patrick Mahomes has been exceptional this year, completing 67% of his passes for an average of 262.4 yards per game with 21 total touchdowns. He’s thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his last three games and has added a rushing element with 280 yards and four scores on the ground.
Josh Allen has 17 total touchdowns while completing 68% of his passes. Last week against Carolina, he threw for just 163 yards, his second-lowest output of the season, as Buffalo controlled the game on the ground.
Betting Angles
Against the Spread
Our model projects Kansas City winning 30-19, supporting the Chiefs to cover. However, using the yards per play differential formula produces Buffalo -3, suggesting value on the home team.
The most strategic approach: Use Buffalo in a 6-point, 2-team teaser. Moving the Bills from +2 to +8 captures the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7. This game profiles as a one-score contest that could come down to the final possession.
For the second leg of this teaser, consider Baltimore (if reading before Thursday night) or Detroit over Minnesota on Sunday.
Total Considerations
While Mahomes and Allen have produced fireworks in their four playoff meetings (all going over 50 points), the regular season tells a different story. Three of their five regular-season matchups have stayed under, with final scores of 26-17, 38-20, 24-20, 20-17, and 30-21.
Buffalo’s ball-control approach combined with both teams’ willingness to establish the run could keep the clock moving and limit possessions. The total opened at 51.5 and has climbed to 52.5, but the under merits consideration given the game flow dynamics.
The Bottom Line
This regular season chapter adds another page to one of the NFL’s best rivalries. While our model likes Kansas City by double digits, the situational factors – Buffalo’s rest advantage, home-field edge, and regular season success against the Chiefs – make this a true toss-up.
The smart play remains the teaser, turning Buffalo from a small home dog into a touchdown-plus underdog in what should be another classic between these AFC powers.