Eagles Take on Cowboys in Season Opener
Our Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -8
The 2025 NFL season kicks off on Thursday, September 4th, with defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia hosting their bitter NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, at Lincoln Financial Field. With the Eagles favored by 6.5 points and a total set at 47.5 (BetOnline), this primetime matchup presents a compelling betting opportunity as we back the home favorites to cover.
Defending Champions Dominate Season Openers
History strongly favors the Eagles in this spot. Since 2004, when the NFL Kickoff Game began featuring the reigning Super Bowl champion, defending champions have compiled an impressive 13-5 record straight up and have been profitable against the spread. Even more compelling, defending Super Bowl champions are 20-5 in Week 1 games since the 2000 season – a remarkable 80% success rate that bettors can’t ignore.
Philadelphia won in Week 1 of the 2018 season after raising their Super Bowl LII banner, and they’ll have another championship banner ceremony before Thursday’s kickoff. The emotional boost and home-field advantage of celebrating their Super Bowl LIX triumph should provide additional motivation against their most hated rival.
Eagles Owned Cowboys in 2024
The most telling factor in this matchup is how thoroughly Philadelphia dominated Dallas last season. The Eagles swept the Cowboys for the first time since 2011, outscoring them by a combined 75-13 across both meetings – an average margin of victory exceeding 30 points per game.
In their Week 10 meeting, Philadelphia crushed Dallas 34-6 at AT&T Stadium, forcing five turnovers in a dominant defensive performance. The Eagles’ December 29th home victory was even more decisive at 41-7, with Dallas managing just one touchdown while Philadelphia’s offense exploded for 481 total yards.
These weren’t fluke results – they represented a clear talent gap between the two franchises that hasn’t been addressed in the offseason.
Model Projects Another Eagles Blowout
Our predictive model, incorporating data from last season’s performances, projects a 34-16 Eagles victory – well beyond the 6.5-point spread. This aligns perfectly with Philadelphia’s recent domination of this matchup and suggests the betting line may not fully account for the talent disparity.
The model factors in Philadelphia’s explosive rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley, who reached 2,000 rushing yards last season, and their opportunistic defense that consistently forced turnovers against Dallas.
Parsons Trade Leaves Dallas Shorthanded
Dallas no longer has to guess whether its star pass rusher will suit up in Philadelphia—he’s gone. On Aug. 28 the Cowboys sent two‑time All‑Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers in exchange for Green Bay’s 2026 and 2027 first‑round picks and veteran defensive tackle Kenny Clark. Parsons immediately signed a four‑year, $188 million extension with Green Bay, making him the highest‑paid non‑quarterback in NFL history. The blockbuster deal ended months of acrimony between Parsons and Dallas’ front office.
Parsons’ departure removes the contract‑dispute distraction but leaves an enormous hole on a defense built around his disruptive talent. In four seasons with Dallas he piled up 52.5 sacks in 63 games and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2021. Dallas has ranked first in defensive EPA per play when he’s on the field and last when he’s not, so replacing his production will be difficult. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer and his staff must now lean on a committee of rushers and figure out how to integrate the newly acquired pieces. The Eagles dominated both games against Dallas in 2024 despite Parsons’ presence, and his absence this season only strengthens Philadelphia’s position heading into Thursday night’s opener.
Cowboys’ Home Struggles Continue on Road
Dallas struggled mightily at home last season, posting just a 2-7 record at AT&T Stadium – their worst home performance since 2015. While they performed better on the road (5-3), they’re now facing a hungry Eagles team in one of the NFL’s most hostile environments with 10 days to prepare and fine-tune their championship celebration.
The Cowboys also dealt with significant injuries last season, including Dak Prescott missing time and Trevon Diggs working back from knee surgery. While Diggs was recently activated from the PUP list, his availability remains questionable for Week 1.
The Bottom Line
Every factor points toward Philadelphia covering the 6.5-point spread on Thursday night. The Eagles are the superior team with home-field advantage, championship confidence, and a proven track record of destroying Dallas. Add in the historical success of defending Super Bowl champions in season openers and the ongoing Parsons distraction, and this line appears too generous to Dallas.
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -8
The number on this game sat at -6.5 but the Parsons trade moved it to -8. As of this writing we still see a -7 -111 on the board but for the most part it’s -8. Obviously, if you have access to the -7, play it!!