Dolphins at Colts Week 1 NFL Betting Preview: Pick’em Battle in Indianapolis
Game Details:
- Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
- TV: CBS
- Spread: Dolphins -PK (Pick’em) Betonline – MyBookie
- Total: 46.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -112, Colts -108
The 2025 NFL season kicks off with an AFC matchup as the Miami Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts in what oddsmakers have deemed a virtual toss-up. With the line sitting at pick’em and a modest total of 46.5, this contest presents interesting betting opportunities for the season opener.
Team Situations and Key Storylines
Miami Dolphins: Health and Chemistry Concerns
The Miami Dolphins are coming off an 8-9 season where it struggled mightily without Tua Tagovailoa, losing four of the six games he missed. The franchise quarterback’s health remains the most critical factor for Miami’s 2025 aspirations, and his availability for Week 1 appears solid.
Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are 25-16 straight up when Tagovailoa starts, and as a Dolphin, Tua is 38-24 as a starter. This track record provides optimism for Miami backers, especially in a pick’em scenario.
However, significant concerns loom on the defensive side. With an all new secondary, the Dolphins could be one of the worst defenses in the league – especially if pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips don’t stay healthy. The team also dealt with some dysfunction reports during the offseason, though these may be overblown.
The injury report shows some key players questionable, including running back De’Von Achane, whose explosive playmaking ability could be crucial in what projects as a close game.
Indianapolis Colts: Quarterback Change and Home Field
The Colts made a significant decision at quarterback, as Daniel Jones beat out 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson for the starting job. This move suggests Indianapolis prioritizes experience and decision-making over raw athleticism for their season opener.
Richardson struggles to get rid of the ball quickly and make the right read, so the experienced Jones should help the offense overcome issues on both defense and the offensive line. The veteran quarterback showed good chemistry with rookie tight end Tyler Warren during preseason, potentially providing a reliable short-passing option.
Indianapolis comes off an 8-9 campaign that left them out of the playoffs, but they’re hoping home field advantage can provide an early boost. They went 5-3 at home last year, including beating the Dolphins 16-10.
Betting Analysis and Model Insights
Our proprietary model projects the Dolphins winning 28-21, but this prediction comes with an important caveat – it’s based on data from the final seven games of last season. Given the personnel changes and rust factor typical of Week 1, bettors should approach this projection cautiously.
Spread Analysis
The line movement tells an interesting story. This line opened with Indy favored by 1.5 points. Things have flipped since then, as the Dolphins are expected to have running back De’Von Achane in action (barring a setback) in this Week 1 game.
Historical Trends:
- The Colts have lost 10 of their last 11 season openers
- The Colts have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 season openers
- The Dolphins have won five of their last six road openers as underdogs against AFC opponents
These trends strongly favor Miami, particularly in the pick’em scenario where they’re essentially getting a free half-point.
Total Analysis
The 46.5 total appears conservative given both teams’ defensive concerns. The Colts’ run defense looks like it could be very bad based on what we saw in the preseason, while Miami’s secondary underwent significant changes.
Key Over Factors:
- Each of the Colts’ last six games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line
- New kickoff rules creating shorter fields and more scoring opportunities
- Both teams feature explosive offensive playmakers when healthy
Key Under Factors:
- Twelve of the Dolphins’ last 15 road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line
- Season opener rust and conservative game plans
- Potential weather factors at outdoor venue
Injury Considerations
Dolphins Injury Report:
- De’Von Achane (questionable) – Explosive RB whose status impacts game flow
- Jason Sanders (out) – Kicker change could affect red zone decisions
Colts Injury Report:
- Josh Downs (questionable) – Key receiving target
- Tyler Goodson (questionable) – Depth running back
Betting Recommendations
Side Play: Dolphins Pick’em (-110)
The combination of historical trends, quarterback stability with Tagovailoa, and the Colts’ poor season opener track record makes Miami the preferred side. Based on talent alone, the Dolphins are the better team in this Week 1 matchup.
The pick’em line essentially gives us Miami at even money, which appears to be excellent value given their 38-24 record with Tagovailoa under center.
Total Play: Under 46.5
While both defenses have concerns, Week 1 historically sees more conservative game plans and offensive rust. Twelve of the Dolphins’ last 15 road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line, suggesting Miami plays tight on the road early in the season.
Our model’s 28-21 projection (49 points) is close to the posted total, but the tendency for unders in season openers, combined with Miami’s September road history, makes the under the preferred play.
Best Bet Summary
Primary Play: Dolphins Pick’em (-110) ⭐⭐⭐ Secondary Play: Under 46.5 (-118) ⭐⭐
The Dolphins present excellent value at pick’em odds, backed by strong historical trends and quarterback stability. The under offers solid value based on seasonal and situational factors, though it’s a lighter play given defensive concerns on both sides.