Eagles at Vikings: Home Dogs Set to Bite in Week 7

Sunday, October 19, 2025 | U.S. Bank Stadium | MyBookie Line: Vikings +2 | Total: 44

The Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) head to Minneapolis looking to snap a two-game skid when they face the Minnesota Vikings (3-2) in a critical NFC matchup. While the defending Super Bowl champions enter as road favorites, our models suggest the home team represents strong value getting points.

Tale of Two Trajectories

The Eagles stumbled into their mini-bye following consecutive defeats to Denver and the Giants. That last one particularly stings – dropping a division game to a rookie quarterback on the road, 34-17. Philadelphia managed just one point in the entire second half against New York, continuing an alarming trend of offensive disappearances that have plagued them throughout the season.

Minnesota returns from their bye week with momentum, having taken two of their last three contests. The Vikings have been alternating wins and losses all season, and if that pattern holds, they’re due for a win here. More importantly, they’ll have had extra time to prepare for Philadelphia’s aggressive defensive front while getting key players healthy.

Injury Report Impacts Both Sides

Both teams are dealing with significant health concerns, particularly at quarterback for Minnesota. J.J. McCarthy remains limited with an ankle issue that has sidelined him for three games. The second-year signal caller has practiced this week but isn’t at full strength. Carson Wentz, who has started the last three contests, is managing a shoulder problem but practiced fully on Wednesday.

The smart money suggests Wentz gets the nod against his former team in the building where Philadelphia captured their first Super Bowl. The veteran has shown flashes of his old form, throwing for 350 yards against Pittsburgh despite the loss.

For Philadelphia, the secondary could be compromised if cornerback Quinyon Mitchell can’t go with his hamstring injury. While he practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, facing Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison without their top corner would be a nightmare scenario. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter (heel) has declared himself ready to play after missing last week, which should help against Minnesota’s ground game.

Yards Per Play Differential Tells the Story

The offensive efficiency gap between these teams cannot be ignored. Philadelphia’s yards per play differential sits at -0.7, ranking 27th in the NFL. Minnesota checks in at +0.4, good for 11th league-wide. This disparity becomes even more pronounced when considering Saquon Barkley’s production has been cut in half compared to last season’s pace through six games.

Minnesota’s defense has allowed at least 99 rushing yards to three different backs this season, sliding from second in the NFL against the run last year to 24th currently. However, they still rank sixth overall in yards allowed per game at 289.5, facing an Eagles offense that sits third-worst in total yards at just 274.5 per contest.

Betting Trends and Analysis

The numbers paint an interesting picture for this matchup:

• Minnesota has won seven of their last eight games against opponents on losing streaks
• Philadelphia has failed to cover in four of their last five as road favorites against NFC North teams
• The Vikings have covered in four of their last five home games
• Seven of Minnesota’s last eight October games against NFC East opponents have gone UNDER the total

Our season-to-date model shows a razor-thin Philadelphia edge, 23-21. However, when we isolate recent form using only the last four games, the projection shifts dramatically to a 30-18 Minnesota win. This aligns with what we’re seeing on the field – an Eagles team that has been outgained in every game this season and carries a negative point differential despite their winning record.

The Pick

Philadelphia ranks just 29th in passing offense, with Jalen Hurts throwing for less than 200 yards in four of six games. They’ll face Brian Flores’ aggressive defensive scheme that has created havoc all season. The Vikings’ pass rush should feast on an Eagles offensive line that has struggled in protection.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s receiving duo of Jefferson and Addison presents matchup nightmares, especially if the Eagles are without their top corner. Add in the revenge factor with Wentz facing his old team, plus home field advantage coming off a bye, and the Vikings make an excellent play.

Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings +2 (-110)

The Vikings also make an ideal leg for a 6-point teaser, moving them to +8 and providing cushion in what projects as a defensive struggle. With both teams struggling to generate consistent offense and the total sitting at 44, taking the home dog and the points offers the best value in Week 7.

Secondary Play: Vikings in a 6-point teaser (+8)

This game sets up as a grind-it-out affair between two teams heading in opposite directions. Back the home team getting points in what should be decided by a field goal either way.