Eagles vs Buccaneers NFL Week 4 Preview: Undefeated Records Collide in Tampa
Game Information:
Sunday, September 28, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay
TV: FOX
Betting Lines:
Spread: Eagles -3.5 betonline
Total: 43.5
The Tale of Two 3-0 Teams
Both the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this pivotal NFC showdown with perfect 3-0 records, but their paths to perfection tell vastly different stories. While Tampa Bay’s three wins have come by a combined margin of just six points – squeaking by with 3, 2, and 1-point margins – Philadelphia has navigated a more challenging early-season schedule despite their own close calls.
The Buccaneers’ most recent test nearly resulted in disaster, as they blew a commanding 23-6 fourth-quarter lead against the Jets before escaping with a 29-27 win on a last-second field goal. This marked the third consecutive week that Tampa Bay has needed to score in the final minute to secure a win, raising questions about their ability to close out games consistently.
Meanwhile, the Eagles demonstrated championship resilience in their most recent outing, erasing a massive 26-7 deficit against the Rams to win 33-26. That comeback showcased the type of mental toughness that defending Super Bowl champions possess, and it’s precisely why our model projects Philadelphia to win this matchup 28-20.
Key Matchup: Eagles’ Ground Game vs Tampa Bay’s Run Defense
The most critical battle in this contest will unfold in the trenches, where Philadelphia’s run-heavy approach meets Tampa Bay’s stout rush defense. The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing play percentage at 54.1%, making their ground game the foundation of their offensive identity.
However, the Buccaneers present a formidable challenge in this area. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in opponent yards per carry (3.6), first in opponent Rush EPA, and second in opponent Rush Success Rate. This defensive strength could force Philadelphia out of its comfort zone and into more passing situations.
If the Buccaneers can successfully shut down the Eagles’ rushing attack, it would force Jalen Hurts to beat them through the air – something he proved capable of doing against Los Angeles when the Rams focused on stopping the run.
Injury Concerns Cloud Tampa Bay’s Chances
The Buccaneers face significant personnel challenges heading into this crucial matchup. Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for nearly a month. The absence of Evans represents a massive blow to Tampa Bay’s passing attack, as the team went 0-3 last season in games without their top receiver due to hamstring issues.
Chris Godwin’s status remains questionable, potentially leaving Baker Mayfield without his top two targets. Additionally, the availability of offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs hangs in the balance, which could compromise pass protection against Philadelphia’s pass rush.
For the Eagles, the injury report appears more manageable, with tackle Lane Johnson listed as questionable being the most notable concern.
Historical Context and Motivation Factors
Philadelphia carries significant motivation into this road trip, having suffered painful defeats in their last two visits to Raymond James Stadium. The Eagles fell 32-9 as 3-point favorites in the 2023 Wild Card round, followed by a 33-16 regular season loss last September when they were missing their top two receivers.
Since that wake-up call against Tampa Bay last season, the Eagles have compiled an impressive 19-1 record with their only loss coming when Hurts was knocked out in the first quarter against Washington. Philadelphia has gone 14-6 against the spread during this dominant stretch.
Betting Trends and Analysis
Several trends favor different aspects of this matchup:
Eagles Trends:
- 4-1 ATS in their last five games
- Won nine straight games overall
- 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games
Buccaneers Trends:
- 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs Eagles
- The OVER is 12-6 in their last 18 games
- The UNDER is 10-3 in their last 13 games vs NFC East opponents
- 7 OVERs in their last 10 regular season home games
Total Analysis
The total of 43.5 appears vulnerable to the over based on several factors. If Tampa Bay successfully neutralizes Philadelphia’s ground game, the Eagles have proven capable of moving the ball effectively through the air, as evidenced by their three passing touchdowns against the Rams.
Tampa Bay’s offense ranks in the top five in EPA per play and EPA per dropback, suggesting they can keep pace offensively. The Buccaneers hung 33 points on Philadelphia in their home matchup last season, with that contest sailing over the 43-point total.
Additionally, Tampa Bay has allowed nine passing plays of 20 or more yards through three games, indicating potential big-play opportunities for the Eagles’ passing attack.
The Bottom Line
Despite Tampa Bay’s home field advantage and their recent success against Philadelphia, the Eagles present too many advantages in this matchup. Their superior schedule strength, championship experience, and the Buccaneers’ injury concerns create a perfect storm for an Eagles cover.
Philadelphia’s 14-6 ATS record since last season’s loss to Tampa Bay demonstrates their ability to respond with focused performances. While the Buccaneers have been fortunate in their close wins, that type of variance typically evens out over time.
The model’s projection of Eagles 28, Buccaneers 20 aligns with Philadelphia covering the 3.5-point spread while the total sails over 43.5 points. The Eagles’ championship pedigree should ultimately prove decisive in this battle of unbeatens.
Recommended Play: Eagles -3.5 and Over 43.5